In: Statistics and Probability
Does correlation imply causation? Discuss in your own words.
No. Correlation does not imply causation.
Two variables are correlated if change in one variable is appears to be in line with change in the other. For example, if we consider the example of ice cream sales in a shop and number of visitors in a swimming pool, we may find the increase in one variable is usually associated with increase in the other. Increase in ice cream sales wont cause people to visit swimming pool more often or vice versa. One is not a causative factor for the other. The real cause is the mean daily temperature. When temperature increases, both ice cream sale and number of visitors to swimming pool may increase. But the variable 'mean daily temperature' is not accounted when we find out correlation between ice cream sales and swimming pool visitors. The unaccounted variable, which is the actual explanation for correlation is called the lurking variable. So, we cannot say that correlation imply causation.