In: Economics
The U.S. economic forecast is focused on the main economic measures for a U-shaped recession. Governors ordered non-essential industries to shut down to avoid the COVID-19 pandemic from spreading. As a result, the rate of GDP growth could fall as much as 50%. This is about the extent encountered during the Great Depression, but it should not last as long. Unemployment may be 30 per cent higher. Retail revenues plunged 16.4 per cent in April as governors shut down non-essential companies. The number of unemployed shot up to 23 million, as companies furloughed workers.
In 2020, GDP growth will shrink by 6.5 per cent. It will rebound in 2021 to a growth rate of 5 per cent and in 2022 to 3.5 per cent. That is according to the most recent forecast published at the June 10, 2020 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. The unemployment rate in 2020 will be 9.3 per cent on average. That's much better than the Fed 's goal of 6.7 percent. In 2021 it will fall to 6.5 percent and in 2022 it will fall to 5.5 percent. The average peaked in April 2020 at 14.7 per cent. In response to the pandemic, more than 20 million workers were laid off their jobs. The actual rate of unemployment involves the underemployed, the slightly attached and the depressed. For that reason, the widely reported rate is around double.
Inflation in 2020 will reach 0.8 per cent. In 2021 it will rise to 1.6 per cent and in 2022 it will rise to 1.7 per cent. The core rate of inflation strips off unpredictable gas and food prices. The Fed recommends the rate to be used when determining monetary policy. In 2020, the core inflation rate will reach 1.0 per cent, in 2021 1.5 per cent and even in 2022 1.7 per cent. The core rate is well below the target inflation rate of 2 per cent of the Fed. The history and prediction of U.S. inflation rates helps to estimate inflation levels in the coming years.
Natural disaster damage, such as hurricanes , floods, and wildfires, was $150 billion in 2019. That's less than the $350 billion record set in 2017 and the $186 billion record set in 2018 Those disasters in 2019 killed 9,000 people and in 2018 killed 15,000. Insurance firms paid out 52 billion dollars in loss claims in 2019, and 86 billion dollars in 2018. The industry is disappointed at the lack of progress on alternatives to global warming. Thanks to the global warming, these have become stronger and more common. In 2019, there were 820 natural disasters, compared with just 520 annually between 1989 and 2018.