Question

International Economics data analysis: Please read this document thoroughly

Consequences for infectious diseases arise from intensified trade in goods and services. This can be observed in the trends towards globalization of the food industry for example. Over recent decades, huge increases in international trade have changed the availability of food products, particularly for inhabitants of high-, middle-, and low-income countries. Consequently, several individuals come into contact with the food through manufacturing, packaging, handling, and shipment thereby increasing the risks of the transmission of infectious diseases. In this exercise we are going to focus on the relationship between globalization and infectious diseases. Specifically, with focus on the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic, we will study the nexus between globalization and communicable diseases. We will utilize a combination of information from the Center of Disease Control (CDC), data from the World Development Indicators, and related academic articles. This will be the structure of the study.

1. Familiarization with the Global Problem: First, we will familiarize ourselves with the source of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and present a brief summary of the timeline of this pandemic. More precisely, we will identify its origin, timeline, and general statistics related to the number of infections and deaths in its early spread. We will also try to understand when and how it hit the United States. To this end, we will use verified and “accurate” data from the Center for Disease Control (CDC) website. The key resource here is from the link below: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html. The learning goal here is not to simply copy and paste full sentences from this page. Instead, you are to read the most essential part of this information that will help you answer the questions that follow. Additionally, I will provide you with an article to further help the discussion of Globalization and infectious diseases. To this end, do NOT simple copy and paste from this page and the article that will be provided. Push yourself to learn by explaining what you read from the article in your paper.

2. Data Analysis: The data analysis component will offer us an opportunity to look at the relationship between infectious diseases and globalization from an empirical perspective. Specifically, we can use the H1N1 pandemic that spanned 2009-2010 as a case study to examine the nexus between globalization and infectious disease. We will focus on data from the World Development Indicators (WDI) to answer a few data driven questions with regards to this relationship. You already know how to work with the WDI. However, I will include additional videos to help you better work navigate the WDI.

Please see the questions below. Your paper should be in an essay format and include all the relevant graphs from the questions. The data analysis comprises two sections with a total of four questions with sub-questions. Answer all questions.

Section 1. Familiarization with the Global Issue of H1N1 in 2009

Question 1: Provide a summary of the following: the origins of the H1N1 virus in 2009, its timeline, how it affected the United States and more generally, the global world health-wise and economically. Finally, when did the pandemic ended, and what has been done post the pandemic to ensure a safe global world? (NB: Your summary should be half a page or maximum one page long. A good answer should succinctly address the questions with facts that can be easily verified. Make sure to cite all relevant sources. Do not simply rely on Wikipedia.)

Section 2. Data Driven Questions for 2010 H1N1

Visit the World Development Indicator. Select the following three series “Cause of death, by communicable diseases and maternal, prenatal and nutrition conditions (% of total)”, “Imports of goods and services (% of GDP)”, and “Exports of goods and services (% GDP)” data for the 28 countries in Table 1 below for the year 2010:

TABLE 1: List of Countries for the Data Analysis (High- and Middle-income countries)

Antigua and Barbuda

2 Australia

3 Austria

4 Bahamas, The

5 Bahrain

6 Barbados

7 Brunei Darussalam

8 Canada

9 Chile

10 China

11 Czech Republic

12 Denmark

13 Iceland

14 Japan

15 Korea, Rep.

16 Kuwait

17 Lithuania

18 Mexico

19 Netherlands

20 New Zealand

21 Norway

22 Panama

23 Qatar

24 Singapore

25 Sweden

26 Switzerland

27 United States

28 Uruguay

After selecting this information, download the data into Excel, and use the data to answer the following questions.

Question 2: Using vertical or horizontal bar graphs, compare the “Cause of death, by communicable diseases and maternal, prenatal and nutrition conditions (% of total)” for the following 10 countries: Canada, Chile, China, Japan, Korea, Rep, Mexico, Qatar, Singapore, Sweden, and United States. From your graph, which countries rank the highest and lowest in terms of Cause of death by communicable diseases. Does this meet your expectations? Discuss why or why not.

Question 3. Recall from that we discussed in Chapter 1 (Patterns of Trade) of the course that “Openness of trade” is a result of globalization. Hence, we can use Openness of Trade to proxy for Globalization. Furthermore, to get a measure of “Openness of Trade”, we must sum the values from “Imports of goods and services services (% of GDP)” and “Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)”. To this end, create an additional variable in your excel file, which does the latter for all 28 countries and name it Openness. Once you create this variable, plot a vertical or horizontal bar graph and compare the level of openness for the following countries: Canada, Chile, China, Japan, Korea, Rep, Mexico, Qatar, Singapore, Sweden, and United States. Using your graph, discuss the level of openness across these countries.

Question 4. The key goal of this data analysis exercise is to try to investigate the nexus between Globalization and Infectious diseases. Answer the questions that follow:

I. Using your constructed data on Openness of Trade (as a proxy for globalization) and the “Cause of death, by communicable diseases and maternal, prenatal and nutrition conditions (% of total)” for all 28 countries in the sample, plot a scatter diagram in Excel with Openness of Trade on the x- axis and Cause of death, by communicable diseases on the y-axis. Include a linear trend in your diagram.

II. Briefly explain your results from the scatter diagram in part (ii). Can you conclude that seemingly, as openness increases, death from communicable diseases increases?

III. With regards to the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, what policy lessons can we learn from the H1N1 pandemic in 2009 to help slowdown the effects of COVID-19. (You can use this article: https://www.id.theclinics.com/article/S0891-5520(11)00037-7/pdf )

Resources

1. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html 2. https://www.who.int/tdr/publications/documents/seb_topic3.pdf

3. https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/information_h1n1_virus_qa.htm#a

4. https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/cdcresponse.htm

5. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/h1n1-summary.htm

Data for your analysis: https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators# All the data you need for your analysis:

• Cause of death, by communicable diseases and maternal, prenatal and nutrition conditions (% of total)

• Imports of goods and services (% of GDP)

• Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)

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Answer 1

Novel Influenza A (H1N1) emerged in the spring of 2009.  H1N1 was first detected in the United States. The common symptoms of the virus are shortness of breath or high fever for more than 3 days. H1N1 was a new virus when it emerged in the US. There was no vaccination available for the virus. Due to the lack of immunity, millions of people were affected worldwide. Most of the deaths occurred among younger people. Infection with this virus was first detected in a 10-year-old patient in Califonia on 15 April 2009. CDC confirmed the fact that the H1N1 virus was new to humans. The virus was contagious and was spreading among people. By 21 April 2009, CDC started working towards making a vaccine against the virus.

On 25 April 2009, WHO declared the 2009 H1N1 outbreak a Public Health Emergency. Federal Government purchased 50 million antiviral drugs as a pre-pandemic planning effort. On April 27, WHO Director announced that the pandemic has increased from phase 3 to phase 4. This was because of the ability of the virus to spread at the community-level. Due to the widespread outbreak, travel health warning was issued by the CDC to postpone non-essential travel from the US to Mexico. Preventive measures such as covering coughs and sneezes and staying at home were advised to reduce the spread of the virus. Social distancing, avoiding large gatherings, and school closure were some of the measures implemented.

On April 29, 2009, WHO informed that the pandemic has increased from phase 4 to phase 5. This signaled all the countries to immediately start preparing for pandemic conditions and be on high alert for the outbreak.  The testing capacity of the country was increased within two weeks of the first case. Side by side, the efforts to make an effective vaccine were underway. New testing techniques were used to identify the infected person faster. The data suggested that about 57 percent of the cases were among people aging between 5 years and 24 years. Also, 41 percent of the hospitalized people were under the age of 5 years. People with other medical problems were at high risk. Around 71 percent of infected people had at least one chronic medical condition.

On June 11, 2009, WHO declared that the 2009 H1N1 influenza was underway a global pandemic with the pandemic alert level to Phase 6. The number of confirmed cases doubled from mid-June to July 2009. The US reported the highest number of cases till June 2009 from all 50 states of the US. Due to increasing number of infected people, the CDC stopped reporting the numbers after 23 July.

There was a decline in the number of cases in the month of August In the last week of August, normal activities started in the US. By the end of August 2009, prototype vaccines were developed to prevent the virus. But it was not licensed. On September 15, 2009, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced the approval of four vaccines. Initially, the vaccines were provided to target groups due to their limited supply.

In 2013, a study was published that suggested that between 1223000 and 200000 people globally died due to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. The key lesson after the outbreak is that it is not sufficient to tell that a pandemic has started. Rather guidance and support are needed. The WHO-established program helped low-income countries to access vaccine. Life came on track once again. It was a difficult situation to be in but with courage and patience, we emerge out of those tough times!