how does the logistic regression work to further the ability of the results

In the SPSS system exactly what is the variable measure for abany?

How productive are U.S. workers? One way to answer this question is to study annual profits per employee. A random sample of companies in computers (I), aerospace (II), heavy equipment (III), and broadcasting (IV) gave the following data regarding annual profits per employee (units in thousands of dollars).

Shall we reject or not reject the claim that there is no difference in population mean annual profits per employee in each of the four types of companies? Use a 5% level of significance.

(b) Find SS_TOT, SS_BET, and SS_W and check that SS_TOT = SS_BET + SS_W. (Use 3 decimal places.)

Find d.f._BET, d.f._W, MS_BET, and MS_W. (Use 3 decimal places for MS_BET, and MS_W.)

Find the value of the sample F statistic. (Use 3 decimal places.)


What are the degrees of freedom?
(numerator)=
(denominator)=

(f) Make a summary table for your ANOVA test.

We are creating a new card game with a new deck. Unlike the normal deck that has 13 ranks (Ace through King) and 4 Suits (hearts, diamonds, spades, and clubs), our deck will be made up of the following.

Each card will have:
i) One rank from 1 to 16.
ii) One of 5 different suits.

Hence, there are 80 cards in the deck with 16 ranks for each of the 5 different suits, and none of the cards will be face cards! So, a card rank 11 would just have an 11 on it. Hence, there is no discussion of "royal" anything since there won't be any cards that are "royalty" like King or Queen, and no face cards!

The game is played by dealing each player 5 cards from the deck. Our goal is to determine which hands would beat other hands using probability. Obviously the hands that are harder to get (i.e. are more rare) should beat hands that are easier to get.

e) How many different ways are there to get exactly 3 of a kind (i.e. 3 cards with the same rank)?
The number of ways of getting exactly 3 of a kind is
DO NOT USE ANY COMMAS

What is the probability of being dealt exactly 3 of a kind?
Round your answer to 7 decimal places.

f) How many different ways are there to get exactly 4 of a kind (i.e. 4 cards with the same rank)?
The number of ways of getting exactly 4 of a kind is
DO NOT USE ANY COMMAS

What is the probability of being dealt exactly 4 of a kind?
Round your answer to 7 decimal places.

g) How many different ways are there to get a full house (i.e. 3 of a kind and a pair, but not all 5 cards the same rank)?
The number of ways of getting a full house is
DO NOT USE ANY COMMAS

What is the probability of being dealt a full house?
Round your answer to 7 decimal places.


h) How many different ways are there to get a straight flush (cards go in consecutive order like 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and all have the same suit. Also, we are assuming there is no wrapping, so you cannot have the ranks be 14, 15, 16, 1, 2)?
The number of ways of getting a straight flush is
DO NOT USE ANY COMMAS

What is the probability of being dealt a straight flush?
Round your answer to 7 decimal places.


i) How many different ways are there to get a flush (all cards have the same suit, but they don't form a straight)?
Hint: Find all flush hands and then just subtract the number of straight flushes from your calculation above.
The number of ways of getting a flush that is not a straight flush is
DO NOT USE ANY COMMAS

What is the probability of being dealt a flush that is not a straight flush?
Round your answer to 7 decimal places.


j) How many different ways are there to get a straight that is not a straight flush (again, a straight flush has cards that go in consecutive order like 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and all have the same suit. Also, we are assuming there is no wrapping, so you cannot have the ranks be 14, 15, 16, 1, 2)?
Hint: Find all possible straights and then just subtract the number of straight flushes from your calculation above.
The number of ways of getting a straight that is not a straight flush is
DO NOT USE ANY COMMAS

What is the probability of being dealt a straight that is not a straight flush?
Round your answer to 7 decimal places.

Specialty Toys, Inc. sells a variety of new and innovative children’s toys. Management learned that the preholiday season is the best time to introduce a new toy, because many families use this time to look for new ideas for December holiday gifts. When Specialty discovers a new toy with good market potential, it chooses an October market entry date. In order to get toys into its stores by October, Specialty places one-time orders with its manufacturers in June or July of each year. Demand for children’s toys can be highly volatile. If a new toy catches on, a sense of shortage in the marketplace often increases the demand to high levels and large profits can be realized. However, new toys can also flop, leaving Specialty stuck with high levels of inventory that must be sold at reduced prices. The most important question the company faces is deciding how many units of a new toy should be purchased to meet anticipated sales demand. If too few are purchased, sales will be lost; if too many are purchased, profits will be reduced because of low prices realized in clearance sales. For the coming season, Specialty plans to introduce a new product called Weather Teddy. This variation of a talking teddy bear is made by a company in Taiwan. When a child presses Teddy’s hand, the bear begins to talk. A built-in barometer selects one of five responses that predict the weather conditions. The responses range from “It looks to be a very nice day! Have fun” to “I think it may rain today. Don’t forget your umbrella.” Tests with the product show that, even though it is not a perfect weather predictor, its predictions are surprisingly good. Several of Specialty’s managers claimed Teddy gave predictions of the weather that were as good as those of many local television weather forecasters. As with other products, Specialty faces the decision of how many Weather Teddy units to order for the coming holiday season. Members of the management team suggested order quantities of 15,000, 18,000, 24,000, or 28,000 units. The wide range of order quantities suggested indicates considerable disagreement concerning the market potential. The product management team asks you for an analysis of the stock-out proba- bilities for various order quantities, an estimate of the profit potential, and help with mak- ing an order quantity recommendation. Specialty expects to sell Weather Teddy for $24 based on a cost of $16 per unit. If inventory remains after the holiday season, Specialty will sell all surplus inventory for $5 per unit. After reviewing the sales history of similar products, Specialty’s senior sales forecaster predicted an expected demand of 20,000 units with a .95 probability that demand would be between 10,000 units and 30,000 units.

Prepare a managerial report that addresses the following issues and recommends an order quantity for the Weather Teddy product.

1. Use the sales forecaster’s prediction to describe a normal probability distribution that can be used to approximate the demand distribution. Sketch the distribution and show its mean and standard deviation.

2. Compute the probability of a stock-out for the order quantities suggested by members of the management team.

3. Compute the projected profit for the order quantities suggested by the management team under three scenarios: worst case in which sales = 10,000 units, most likely case in which sales = 20,000 units, and best case in which sales = 30,000 units.

4. One of Specialty’s managers felt that the profit potential was so great that the order quantity should have a 70% chance of meeting demand and only a 30% chance of any stock-outs. What quantity would be ordered under this policy, and what is the projected profit under the three sales scenarios?

5. Provide your own recommendation for an order quantity and note the associated profit projections. Provide a rationale for your recommendation.

1. (Binomial) The probability that a patient recovers from a delicate heart operation is 0.85. Of the next 7 patients, what is the probability that

   1. (a) exactly 5 survive?

   2. (b) between 3 and 6 survive (inclusive)?

   3. (c) What is the probability that 4 or more patients will NOT recover from the heart operation?

According to a Yale program on climate change communication survey, 71% of Americans think global warming is happening.†

(a)

For a sample of 16 Americans, what is the probability that at least 13 believe global warming is occurring? Use the binomial distribution probability function discussed in Section 5.5 to answer this question. (Round your answer to four decimal places.)

(b)

For a sample of 140 Americans, what is the probability that at least 90 believe global warming is occurring? Use the normal approximation of the binomial distribution to answer this question. (Round your answer to four decimal places.)

(c)

As the number of trials in a binomial distribution application becomes large, what is the advantage of using the normal approximation of the binomial distribution to compute probabilities?

As the number of trials becomes large, the normal approximation simplifies the calculations required to obtain the desired probability.As the number of trials becomes large, the normal approximation gives a more accurate answer than the binomial probability function.   

(d)

When the number of trials for a binomial distribution application becomes large, would developers of statistical software packages prefer to use the binomial distribution probability function shown in Section 5.5 or the normal approximation of the binomial distribution discussed in Section 6.3? Explain.

Please answer the following:

1. United Dairies, Inc., supplies milk to several independent grocers throughout Dade County, Florida. Managers at United Dairies want to develop a forecast of the number of half gallons of milk sold per week. Sales data for the past 12 weeks are:

.

1. Show the exponential smoothing forecasts using α = 0.1.
   1. Applying the MSE measure of forecast accuracy, would you prefer a smoothing constant of α=0.1 or α= 0.2 for the United Dairies sales time series?
   2. Are the results the same if you apply MAE as the measure of accuracy?
   3. What are the results if MAPE is used?

2.    Use exponential smoothing with a α = 0.4 to develop a forecast of demand for week 13. What is the resulting MSE?

A survey asked parents of children aged ten and under how many birthday parties they attended last year. Let X represent the number of birthday parties. The probability distribution is given below. Find the mean and the standard deviation of the probability distribution using Excel. Round the mean and standard deviation to three decimal places.

x P(x) 1 0.0303 2 0.0639 3 0.0197 4 0.003 5 0.0164 6 0.0454 7 0.0981 8 0.0648 9 0.0657 10 0.0124 11 0.0118 12 0.0539 13 0.0497 14 0.0648 15 0.0373 16 0.0475 17 0.0224 18 0.0191 19 0.0088 20 0.0406 21 0.0445 22 0.1202 23 0.0597

Provide a rationale as to why the three (3) aforementioned concepts or skills are important to someone in the field of business statistics.

1. Common Cause vs Special Cause Variation
2. SIPOC Model
3. Basic Improvement & Problem Solving Frameworks

1. The data below are survival times (in years) for cancer patients receiving experimental therapy (TREAT) or standard of care (SOC) in a time-to-mortality study.

1. By hand, calculate the Kaplan-Meier estimate of the survival function for each therapy:
2. By hand, calculate the pointwise 95% confidence intervals for the Kaplan-Meier survival estimate for each therapy.
3. By hand, calculate the point and 95% confidence interval estimates of the 25^th, 50^th, and 75^th percentiles of the survival distribution for each therapy.

1. QD Corporation makes paints known for their quality and quick drying features. QD has developed a new wall paint code named Mickey that it is testing in a controlled environment. The firm is testing for drying time of the paint. Drying time is affected by factors like humidity, air pollution, ventilation and temperature. The test results show that the drying time of Mickey is normally distributed with a mean of 10 hours and a standard deviation of 1.8 hours.

Compute the following:

1. What is the probability that the drying time is less than 7 hours?
2. What is the probability that the drying time is between 6 hours and 12 hours?
3. What should the label on the paint can say if the firm wants to be 95% sure that the drying time will be the claimed time or less?
4. A customer returns a can saying that the drying time was 15 hours. What is the z score corresponding to that observed value?

4.3. Referring to the previous problem, again suppose that a uniform prior is placed on the proportion π, and that from a random sample of 327 voters, 131 support the sales tax. Also suppose that the newspaper plans on taking a new survey of 20 voters. Let y∗ denote the number in this new sample who support the sales tax.

1. Find the posterior predictive probability that y∗ = 8.

2. Find the95% posterior predictive interval for y∗.Do this by finding the predictive probabilities for each of the possible values of y∗ and ordering them from largest probability to smallest. Then add the most probable values of y∗ into your probability set one at a time until the total probability exceeds 0.95 for the first time.

In the average month there is about 150,000 trucks sold across the board. There is about 350,000 vehicles sold every month. Trucks make up about 43% of the sales every month in the USA. At a 95% confidence level there are between ____% and ____% trucks sold every month.