Question

Find the forecast for all the four quarters for the year 9 & 10.

Year	Qtr. 1	Qtr. 2	Qtr. 3	Qtr. 4	Total
1	28	37	33	24	122
2	27	40	30	23	120
3	31	36	33	30	130
4	31	39	36	26	132
5	29	38	32	24	123
6	32	40	36	26	134
7	34	42	34	29	139
8	31	39	39	23	132

Answer 1

We can calculate forecast using many methods, mainly we use these two methods: Three year moving average or exponential smoothing value method.

Here I am using three month moving average method to calculate the forecast.

Qtr. 1: In this method we calculate the average of first three years and then forecast it for the fourth year and then calculate the average of second three years and the forecast it for the fifth year and so on.

YEAR	QUARTER 1	FORECAST
1	28
2	27
3	31
4	31	28.67
5	29	29.67
6	32	30.33
7	34	30.67
8	31	31.67

Now forecast for 9th and 10th year is :

Forecast for 9^th month =

Forecast for 10^th month =

Qtr. 2: In this method we calculate the average of first three years and then forecast it for the fourth year and then calculate the average of second three years and the forecast it for the fifth year and so on.

YEAR	QUARTER 1	FORECAST
1	37
2	40
3	36
4	39	37.67
5	38	38.33
6	40	37.67
7	42	39
8	39	40

Now forecast for 9th and 10th year is :

Forecast for 9^th month =

Forecast for 10^th month =

Qtr. 3: In this method we calculate the average of first three years and then forecast it for the fourth year and then calculate the average of second three years and the forecast it for the fifth year and so on.

YEAR	QUARTER 1	FORECAST
1	33
2	30
3	33
4	36	32
5	32	33
6	36	33.67
7	34	34.67
8	39	34

Now forecast for 9th and 10th year is :

Forecast for 9^th month =

Forecast for 10^th month =

Qtr. 4: In this method we calculate the average of first three years and then forecast it for the fourth year and then calculate the average of second three years and the forecast it for the fifth year and so on.

YEAR	QUARTER 1	FORECAST
1	24
2	23
3	30
4	26	25.67
5	24	26.33
6	26	26.67
7	29	25.33
8	23	26.33

Now forecast for 9th and 10th year is :

Forecast for 9^th month =

Forecast for 10^th month =