Question

Pick a profession, identify events that might affect the variation ( you must include all three ; cyclical, seasonal and irregular ) of the secular trend. List at least three ways that this information could be beneficial to the industry.

Answer 1

The secular trend is the long term development :

• Secular trendsenable us to take a gander at past examples or patterns and utilize these to make some forecast about the future.
• It is conceivable to isolate he effect of secular trends from the time arrangement and makes studies of the other components easier.

Seasonal:

• The seasonal variation of a time series is a pattern of change that recurs regularly every overtime.
• Seasonal pattern regularly are one year long;

i.e.,the pattern starts repeating itself at a settled time each year .

• While variations may repeat each year, the idea of regular variety likewise stretches out to those examples that happen month to month, week by week, every day or even hourly .

Cyclical:

• Cyclical variations have repeating patterns, yet have a more drawn out and more unpredictable time scale .
• Examples of reasons for repeating variety are:

1) natural disasters,such as floods, earthquakes,cyclones and droughts.

2) wars

3) changes in interest rates.

4) real/major increments or decrements in the population.

5) the opening of new shopping complex .

6) the building of another airport.

• Cycles can be far a way from ordinary and it is typically difficult to predict just how long these periods of expansion and contraction will be.

Irregular:

• Irregular variation in a period arrangement happens over varying (generally short periods )
• It follows no regular pattern and is by nature unpredictable.
• Examples of occasions that may cause sporadic variety are:

1)the death (or vanishing) of a country’s leader.

2) here and now varietions in the climate, for example, unseasonably warm winters (which may affect sales of specific products).

3) sudden changes in interest rates.

4)the collapse of large (or even small) organizations/companies.

• In general, if the variation in a period arrangement can't be represented by secular trend, or by seasonal or cyclical variation, it is typically credited to irregular variation.