To get published in an academic journal, you have to prove something "interesting." As a result,...

To get published in an academic journal, you have to prove something "interesting." As a result, most academics begin their research by investigating hypotheses that, all else equal, are unlikely to be true. Suppose each research project begins with a research claim that has a 10% chance of being correct.

They then perform a study that satisfies the following two properties:

1) The probability that they correctly *find* an important result given that their *claim* is true is 50%
2) The probability that they incorrectly *find* an important result given that their *claim* is false is 5%

If they find an important result they are published. What is the probability that their claim was true, given that they were published?

Expert Solution

P(claim was true | they were published) = P(they are published | claim was true) * P(claim was true)/P(they are published)

= (0.5 * 0.1)/(0.5 * 0.1 + (1 - 0.05) * (1 - 0.1))

= 0.0552

milcah answered 8 months ago

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