Question
In: Statistics and Probability
a) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for the time series.
Consider the following time series data.
| Week | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 18 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 12 |
a) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing
forecasts for the time series.
| Week | Time Series Value |
Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 | |
| 2 | 11 | ? |
| 3 | 13 | ? |
| 4 | 10 | ? |
| 5 | 14 | ? |
| 6 | 12 | ? |
Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.)
MSE =
What is the forecast for week 7? (Round your answer to two decimal places.)
Forecast=?
(e)Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.4 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts.
| Week | Time Series Value |
Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 | |
| 2 | 11 | ? |
| 3 | 13 | ? |
| 4 | 10 | ? |
| 5 | 14 | ? |
| 6 | 12 | ? |
Solutions
orchestra answered 3 years agoRelated Solutions
a) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for the time series.
Consider the following time series data.
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
18
11
13
10
14
12
a) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing
forecasts for the time series.
Week
Time Series
Value
Forecast
1
18
2
11
?
3
13
?
4
10
?
5
14
?
6
12
?
Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal
places.)
MSE =
What is the forecast for week 7? (Round your answer to
two...
a. Show the naive forecast, an exponential smoothing forecasts using α = 0.2, and a 3-month moving average forecast.
Month137244335450534630750829936103511411245a. Show the naive forecast, an exponential smoothing
forecasts using α = 0.2, and a 3-month moving average forecast.b. Compare the MFE, MSE, and MAPE on the modelsc. Make a conclusion on which model to use.d. Find the alpha (smoothing constant) that minimizes the
MSE.
Question: Use the first-order exponential smoothing model with α = 0.2 to forecast for these data...
Question: Use the first-order exponential smoothing model with
α = 0.2 to forecast for these data and for the
first six months of the third year. Compute MSD/E,
MAD, MAPE, and Bias.
Month
(t)
Demand
A(t)
1
148
2
125
3
78
4
53
5
25
6
29
7
9
8
68
9
84
10
110
11
147
12
120
13
147
14
109
15
96
16
70
17
42
18
36
19
34
20
28
21
71
22
102...
With the gasoline time series data from the given table, show the exponential smoothing forecasts using...
With the gasoline time series data from the given table, show
the exponential smoothing forecasts using α = 0.1.
week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
sales 17 21 19 23 18 16 20 18 22 20 15 22
a.
Applying the MSE measure of forecast accuracy, would you prefer
a smoothing constant of α = 0.1 or α = 0.2 for the gasoline sales
time series? Do not round your interim computations and...
Given the following data, use exponential smoothing with a = 0.3 and α =.5 to develop...
Given the following data, use exponential smoothing with a = 0.3
and α =.5 to develop a demand forecasts for period
7. Assume that the forecast for week 1= 19. Use the Mean
Absolute Percent Error to determine which forecasts are more
accurate.
Period
1
2
3
4
5
6
Demand
17
19
15
19
13
18
For the time series below, enter the exponential smoothing predictions, rounded to the nearest 0.01. Let...
For the time series below, enter the exponential smoothing
predictions, rounded to the nearest 0.01. Let alpha=0.25. Then
calculate the error and MSE.
Week
Time Series
Exponential Smoothing
Error
1
8
2
12
3
15
4
11
5
13
6
16
Mean Absolute Error:
Mean Squared Error:
Exp. Smoothed prediction for week 7:
Use exponential smoothing with trend adjustment. Consider T1 = 2, F1 = 12, α alpha =...
Use exponential smoothing with trend
adjustment. Consider T1 = 2, F1 =
12, α alpha = 0.2 ,
delta = 0.3
PART (A) What is your forecast for period
3?
Part (B) What is the related MAD for your
forecast?
Month
Actual Demand
1
15
2
25
Using exponential smoothing with α of 0.1 and the given forecast for year 1
As you can see in the following table, demand for heart transplant surgery at Washington General Hospital has increased steadily in the past few years: Year12345Heart Transplants46.048.055.057.057.0The director of medical services predicted 6 years ago that demand in year 1 would be 42.0 surgeries a) Using exponential smoothing with α of 0.1 and the given forecast for year 1, the forecasts for years 2 through 6 are (round your responses to one decimal place): Year123456Forecast42.0For the forecast made using exponential smoothing with α...
Write a report on the application of all the forecasting methods.(regression,time series decomposition and exponential smoothing,ARIMA...
Write a report on the application of all the forecasting
methods.(regression,time series decomposition and exponential
smoothing,ARIMA models
Calculate exponential smoothing forecast for these data using an α of 0.7 and an initial forecast...
Calculate exponential smoothing forecast for these data using an
α of 0.7 and an initial forecast (F1) of 18 ), or Exponential
Smoothing with Trend (use optimal α and δ,
Past Months
Cinnamon Buns
1
18
2
17
3
19
4
19
5
22
6
23
7
23
8
25
9
24
10
26
11
27
12
28
13
29
14
31
15
33
16
30
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