Question

In: Operations Management

Calculate exponential smoothing forecast for these data using an α of 0.7 and an initial forecast...

Calculate exponential smoothing forecast for these data using an α of 0.7 and an initial forecast (F1) of 18 ), or Exponential Smoothing with Trend (use optimal α and δ,

Past Months	Cinnamon Buns
1	18
2	17
3	19
4	19
5	22
6	23
7	23
8	25
9	24
10	26
11	27
12	28
13	29
14	31
15	33
16	30

Expert Solution

EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

FORECAST = F(T-1) + (ALPHA * (A(T-1) - F(T-1)), A = ACTUAL DEMAND, F = FORECAST, (T-1) = PREVIOUS PERIOD

FORECAST 2 = 18 + (0.7 * (18 - 18) = 18

FORECAST 3 = 18 + (0.7 * (17 - 18) = 17.3

FORECAST 4 = 17.3 + (0.7 * (19 - 17.3) = 18.49

FORECAST 5 = 18.49 + (0.7 * (19 - 18.49) = 18.85

FORECAST 6 = 18.85 + (0.7 * (22 - 18.85) = 21.06

FORECAST 7 = 21.06 + (0.7 * (23 - 21.06) = 22.42

FORECAST 8 = 22.42 + (0.7 * (23 - 22.42) = 22.83

FORECAST 9 = 22.83 + (0.7 * (25 - 22.83) = 24.35

FORECAST 10 = 24.35 + (0.7 * (24 - 24.35) = 24.11

FORECAST 11 = 24.11 + (0.7 * (26 - 24.11) = 25.43

FORECAST 12 = 25.43 + (0.7 * (27 - 25.43) = 26.53

FORECAST 13 = 26.53 + (0.7 * (28 - 26.53) = 27.56

FORECAST 14 = 27.56 + (0.7 * (29 - 27.56) = 28.57

FORECAST 15 = 28.57 + (0.7 * (31 - 28.57) = 30.27

FORECAST 16 = 30.27 + (0.7 * (33 - 30.27) = 32.18

FORECAST 17 = 32.18 + (0.7 * (30 - 32.18) = 30.65

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keosha answered 2 months ago

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