Question

The rate of unemployment in a country is unrelated to its level of GDP.

Answer 1

Potential output is also called full-employment output. Potential output is the level of real GDP that would be produced if all resources are used efficiently. For example, if labor is used efficiently, the actual rate of unemployment will be equal to the natural rate of unemployment. When there is a positive output gap, an economy is producing beyond its long-run potential and the unemployment rate will be lower than the NRU. During a recession, real GDP falls below its potential and the unemployment rate is higher than the NRU.

The actual unemployment rate is different than the natural rate of unemployment, at different points along the business cycle, because cyclical unemployment changes along the business cycle. Cyclical unemployment increases due to reduced output during recessions, and cyclical unemployment decreases due to increased output during expansions.

In its most basic form, Okun's law investigates the statistical relationship between a country's unemployment rate and the growth rate of its economy. The economics research arm of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis explains that Okun's law "is intended to tell us how much of a country's gross domestic product(GDP) may be lost when the unemployment rate is above its natural rate." It goes on to explain that "the logic behind Okun's law is simple. Output depends on the amount of labor used in the production process, so there is a positive relationship between output and employment. Total employment equals the labor force minus the unemployed, so there is a negative relationship between output and unemployment (conditional on the labor force)."

The rate of growth in real GDP (GDP adjusted for inflation) is also important. Recently, the U.S. economy has been growing at a slow but steady rate of between 3 and 4 percent annually. This growth rate has meant a steady increase in the output of goods and services and relatively low unemployment. When the growth rate slides toward zero, the economy begins to stagnate and decline.

One country that continues to grow more rapidly than most is China, whose GDP has been growing at 6 to 7 percent per year. Today few things in the global marketplace are not or cannot be made in China. The primary contributor to China’s rapid growth has been technology. For example, most tablets and laptops are manufactured in China.

The level of economic activity is constantly changing. These upward and downward changes are called business cycles. Business cycles vary in length, in how high or low the economy moves, and in how much the economy is affected. Changes in GDP trace the patterns as economic activity expands and contracts. An increase in business activity results in rising output, income, employment, and prices. Eventually, these all peak, and output, income, and employment decline. A decline in GDP that lasts for two consecutive quarters (each a three-month period) is called a recession. It is followed by a recovery period when economic activity once again increases. The most recent recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009.

Another macroeconomic goal is full employment, or having jobs for all who want to and can work. Full employment doesn’t actually mean 100 percent employment. Some people choose not to work for personal reasons (attending school, raising children) or are temporarily unemployed while they wait to start a new job. Thus, the government defines full employment as the situation when about 94 to 96 percent of those available to work actually have jobs. During the 2007–2009 recession in the United States, the unemployment rate peaked at 10 percent in October 2009. Today, that rate hovers at about 4 percent.

Maintaining low unemployment levels is of concern not just to the United States but also to countries around the world. For example, high youth unemployment rates (for workers 25 years of age and younger) in Spain, Italy, and Greece continue to cause protests in these European countries as elected officials struggle with how to turn around their respective economies and put more people, particularly young people, back to work. The UK’s impending exit from the European Union may also have an effect on unemployment rates, as global companies move jobs out of Britain to central European countries such as Poland.

Maintaining low unemployment levels is of concern not just to the United States but also to countries around the world. For example, high youth unemployment rates (for workers 25 years of age and younger) in Spain, Italy, and Greece continue to cause protests in these European countries as elected officials struggle with how to turn around their respective economies and put more people, particularly young people, back to work. The UK’s impending exit from the European Union may also have an effect on unemployment rates, as global companies move jobs out of Britain to central European countries such as Poland.