In: Finance
You are analyzing the U.S. equity market based upon the S&P Industrials Index and using the present value of free cash flow to equity technique. Your inputs are as follows:
|
Year (n) | Growth rate (g) |
FCFE (FCFEn-1*(1+g)) |
Perpetuity value (FCFEPerpetuity/(k-g)) |
PV of
FCFE (FCFE/(1+k)^n) |
1 | 9% | 65.40 | 65.40 | 60.00 |
2 | 9% | 71.29 | 71.29 | 60.00 |
3 | 9% | 77.70 | 77.70 | 60.00 |
4 | 7% | 83.14 | 83.14 | 58.90 |
5 | 7% | 88.96 | 88.96 | 57.82 |
6 | 7% | 95.19 | 95.19 | 56.76 |
7 | 5% | 99.95 | 99.95 | 54.67 |
Perpetuity | 5% | 104.94 | 2,623.62 | 1,435.21 |
Equity value of the company | 1,843.36 |
a). Difference = 2,000 -1,843.36 = 156.64
If the S&P Industrial index is currently at 2,000 then one would underweight the U.S. equity market as estimated value of the stock is $156.64 lower than the index.
b). If inflation increases by 1% then the 1% increase in growth rates would increase the FCFE per year but since the discount rate would also go up by 1%, the effect would be almost neutralized.
Index value would be 2,000*1.01 = 2,020
Year (n) | Growth rate (g) |
FCFE (FCFEn-1*(1+g)) |
Perpetuity value (FCFEPerpetuity/(k-g)) |
PV of FCFE (FCFE/(1+k)^n) |
1 | 10% | 66.00 | 66.00 | 60.00 |
2 | 10% | 72.60 | 72.60 | 60.00 |
3 | 10% | 79.86 | 79.86 | 60.00 |
4 | 8% | 86.25 | 86.25 | 58.91 |
5 | 8% | 93.15 | 93.15 | 57.84 |
6 | 8% | 100.60 | 100.60 | 56.79 |
7 | 6% | 106.64 | 106.64 | 54.72 |
Perpetuity | 6% | 113.03 | 2,825.87 | 1,450.12 |
Equity value of the company | 1,858.37 |
Difference = 2,020-1,858.37 = 161.63
You should underweight the U.S. equity market as the estimated value of the stock of $ 161.63 lower than the S&P Industrial Index.