In: Statistics and Probability
Find the most appropriate ARMA(p,q) model to the monthly average wind speed data(from Jan 1984 to Mar 2020) and predict the next nine numbers by using R. Your analysis should include stationarity checking, model identification, parameter estimation, model diagnostics, and forecasting procedures.
5.4 9.2 9.2 11.6 9.8 8.7 8.3 8.9 8.1 7.4 9.6 6.9 5.1 8.3 9.4 8.7 8.9 9.6 8.3 8.7 8.5 8.5 7.8 5.4 6.7 8.9 9.6 9.8 9.6 8.7 8.1 7.8 7.2 6.3 7.4 4.7 7.6 7.4 9.8 9.2 8.1 8.5 8.5 7.6 7.4 6.5 6.7 8.9 6.5 6.9 9.4 8.9 9.4 8.7 7.6 7.2 7.4 6.3 8.9 6.5 7.2 5.8 9.4 8.3 8.9 8.5 7.8 7.8 7.4 7.4 6 4.9 8.1 8.9 8.7 8.1 9.4 8.3 8.1 8.1 7.4 8.5 7.6 6.7 5.6 5.8 8.3 8.1 8.9 8.5 8.1 7.8 7.8 8.1 7.6 6.3 6.9 7.6 7.4 8.9 9.6 9.4 8.5 8.5 8.7 8.1 8.5 10.3 8.5 7.8 8.5 9.2 9.8 9.4 9.6 8.1 7.8 7.2 7.6 8.3 6.3 9.2 9.4 9.8 8.5 8.7 8.9 8.3 7.8 8.3 9.4 7.4 9.2 7.2 9.2 9.4 7.6 8.7 8.3 7.6 7.8 7.4 6 6.7 7.2 8.5 8.9 8.7 8.1 7.8 7.2 7.8 7.2 6.9 6.5 10.1 6.3 6.9 9.8 9.4 7.6 8.1 7.2 7.4 7.2 8.3 6.9 6.5 8.5 10.3 8.1 7.6 7.4 8.1 7.4 6.7 6.5 7.4 8.1 6.9 7.2 10.5 8.9 9.2 8.7 8.3 7.4 7.4 7.6 7.4 7.2 5.8 6.9 8.3 8.7 8.3 8.1 8.3 7.2 7.4 7.2 6.9 5.6 6.3 4.3 6 8.7 7.4 8.7 8.3 6.9 6.7 7.2 7.4 7.8 8.3 7.2 8.1 8.3 8.7 8.5 8.1 7.4 7.6 6.7 6.5 6 8.5 6 7.2 8.7 8.5 7.2 8.1 6.5 6.9 7.6 6.7 6.7 8.7 5.8 8.9 8.1 8.5 6.9 8.1 7.2 6.9 7.4 6.9 5.6 6.5 6 5.6 8.5 9.2 8.1 8.3 8.3 7.4 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.5 8.7 7.8 10.1 9.2 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.2 6.7 9.2 7.2 6 6.5 7.6 8.1 8.3 7.8 6.5 6.3 7.4 7.6 5.8 7.8 8.1 7.8 8.1 8.9 8.5 7.6 6.9 7.2 5.8 6 4.9 6.9 5.4 7.2 8.1 8.7 7.2 6.5 6.7 6.3 7.2 6.7 7.2 5.6 6.9 5.8 8.9 8.7 8.5 7.8 6.9 7.2 6.3 6.3 7.2 6.7 5.1 7.2 8.9 8.5 9.6 7.6 7.2 6.5 6 5.6 7.6 4.9 6.7 7.4 10.1 7.8 7.4 7.8 6.9 5.8 5.6 6 6.7 8.3 4 7.2 7.2 9.4 8.5 7.4 6.5 6 7.8 6 4.5 4 4.3 6.9 8.3 7.8 8.1 7.8 6.7 6.7 6.5 6.5 5.6 6.9 3.6 6.5 6.9 8.5 7.4 6.9 6.7 7.2 5.4 5.8 7.4 8.9 6.3 6.5 8.9 8.7 7.8 7.8 6.9 6.9 7.2 7.8 7.8 6 5.8 9.4 9.6 9.6 8.7 7.8 6.5 6.7 6.5 6.7 8.3 5.4 6.7 7.8 8.7 9.2 7.2 8.3 7.2 6.9 6.3 6.3 5.8 7.6 6.7 9.2 7.4 9.2 7.6 7.6 6.9 6.7 6.7 7.2 5.1 6.5 7.6 7.8 7.4 |