Question

In: Statistics and Probability

Use the tree diagram technique that can be found in Lecture 12 to solve this problem....

Use the tree diagram technique that can be found in Lecture 12 to solve this problem. Suppose that 50% of all people who take a pregnancy test are, in fact, pregnant. A certain pregnancy test is known to identify 95% of pregnancies with a positive test result. However, 2% of people who are not pregnant will have a positive test result.

Find the following probabilities:

a. What is the probability that someone is pregnant and tests positive?





b. What is the overall probability of a positive test result?





c. If a woman has a positive test result, what is the probability that she is actually pregnant?

Solutions

Expert Solution

a) P(pregnant and test positive) = P(test positive | pregnant) * P(pregnant)

                                                   = 0.95 * 0.50 = 0.475

b) P(Positive test) = P(positive | pregnant) * P(pregnant) + P(positive | not pregnant) * P(not pregnant)

                             = 0.95 * 0.50 + 0.02 * (1 - 0.50)

                             = 0.485

c) P(pregnant | positive) = P(positive | pregnant) * P(pregnant)/P(positive)

                                      = (0.95 * 0.50)/0.485

                                      = 0.9794


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