Question

In: Statistics and Probability

The worldwide sales of cars from 1981-1990 are shown in the table below. Given: α =...

The worldwide sales of cars from 1981-1990 are shown in the table below. Given: α = 0.2 and β = 0.15 (Hint: Use XLMiner) Year Units sold in thousands 1981 888 1982 900 1983 1000 1984 1200 1985 1100 1986 1300 1987 1250 1988 1150 1989 1100 1990 1200 Using the double exponential smoothing, find the value of the root mean square error for the given data.

Solutions

Expert Solution

The value of the root mean square error is 159.2935.

Alpha 0.2
Beta 0.15
Data Forecasts and Error Analysis
Period Demand Smoothed Forecast, Ft Smoothed Trend, Tt Forecast Including Trend, FITt Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 888 888 888 0 0 0 00.00%
Period 2 900 888 1.71E-14 888 12 12 144 01.33%
Period 3 1000 890.4 109.6 109.6 12012.16 10.96%
Period 4 1200 912.32 287.68 287.68 82759.78 23.97%
Period 5 1100 969.856 130.144 130.144 16937.46 11.83%
Period 6 1300 995.8848 304.1152 304.1152 92486.05 23.39%
Period 7 1250 1056.708 193.2922 193.2922 37361.86 15.46%
Period 8 1150 1095.366 54.63373 54.63373 2984.844 04.75%
Period 9 1100 1106.293 -6.29302 6.293018 39.60207 00.57%
Period 10 1200 1105.034 94.96559 94.96559 9018.463 0.079138
Total 1180.138 1192.724 253744.2 100.19%
Average 118.0138 119.2724 25374.42 10.02%
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 178.0956

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orchestra answered 1 year ago
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