BAYES THEOREM Policy Pollsters [PP] is a market research firm specializing in political polls. Records indicate...

BAYES THEOREM

Policy Pollsters [PP] is a market research firm specializing in political polls. Records indicate that in past elections, when a candidate was elected, Policy Pollsters had accurately predicted this 85% of the time and was wrong only 15% of the time. Records also show that, for losing candidates, Policy Pollsters accurately predicted that they lose 75% of the time and was wrong 25% of the time. Before the poll is conducted, there is a 50% chance of winning the election.

a. If a poll conducted by PP predicts a candidate will lose the election, what is the probability that the candidate will win the election? Show your work. [2 points]

b. What is the probability that a poll conducted by PP predicts a candidate will win the election and the candidate loses the election? Show your work. [2 points]

c. Are the PP poll predicting a loss and the candidate losing the election independent events? Please show how you arrived at your answer. [1 point]

Expert Solution

orchestra answered 1 year ago

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