Question
In: Statistics and Probability
Consider the following time series. t 1 2 3 4 5 yt 6 10 8 13...
Consider the following time series. t 1 2 3 4 5 yt 6 10 8 13 15 (a) Choose the correct time series plot. (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) What type of pattern exists in the data? (b) Use simple linear regression analysis to find the parameters for the line that minimizes MSE for this time series. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. y-intercept, b0 = 4.1 Slope, b1 = 2.1 MSE = ???? (c) What is the forecast for t = 6? If required, round your answer to one decimal place. 16.7 I know how to do it all but the MSE.
Solutions
orchestra answered 1 year agoRelated Solutions
Consider the following time series data. t 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 yt 10...
Consider the following time series data. t 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 yt 10 9
7 8 6 4 4 a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern
exists in the data? b. Develop the linear trend equation for this
time series. c. What is the forecast for t=8?
Consider the following time series. t 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Yt 83 61...
Consider the following time series.
t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Yt
83
61
45
36
29
28
36
b. Develop the quadratic trend equation for the
time series. Enter negative value as negative number.(to 3
decimals)
Tt = ______ + _______t + ________ t2
c. What is the forecast for t = 8?
Consider the following time series. t 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 yt 125 108...
Consider the following time series.
t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
yt
125
108
102
99
94
92
86
(b)
Use simple linear regression analysis to find the parameters
for the line that minimizes MSE for this time series.
If required, round your answers to two decimal places.
y-intercept, b0 =
Slope, b1 =
MSE =
(c)
What is the forecast for t = 8?
If required, round your answer to one decimal place.
Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 13...
Consider the following time series data.
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
18
13
16
11
17
14
a. Use a smoothing constant of a = 0.4 to
compute the MSE (to 2 decimals).
(___)
2.Consider the following time series data.
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
19
13
17
12
17
15
b. Develop the three-week moving average
forecasts for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week
7 (to 2 decimals if...
Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 20 13...
Consider the following time series data.
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
20
13
15
10
18
14
Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for
the next week, compute the following measures of forecast
accuracy.
(a)
Mean absolute error
If required, round your answer to one decimal place.
(b)
Mean squared error
If required, round your answer to one decimal place.
(c)
Mean absolute percentage error
If required, round your intermediate calculations and final...
Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 13...
Consider the following time series data.
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
18
13
17
11
17
15
Calculate the measures of forecast error using the naive (most
recent value) method and the average of historical data (to 2
decimals).
Naive method
Historical data
Mean absolute error
Mean squared error
Mean absolute percentage error
Top of Form
Consider the following time series
data.
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Value
23
14
19
10
18...
Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 13...
Consider the following time series data.
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
18
13
17
12
17
15
a. develop the three-week moving average forecasts for this time
series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7 (to 2 decimals if
necessary).
b. use = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for
the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7 (to 2
decimals).
c. use a smoothing constant of =0.4 to compute the MSE...
Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 13...
Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value
18 13 17 12 17 15 a. Which of the following is a correct time
series plot for this data? What type of pattern exists in the data?
b. Develop the three-week moving average forecasts for this time
series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week (to 2 decimals if
necessary). MSE The forecast for week c. Use to compute the
exponential smoothing forecasts for the...
Consider the following time series: Period 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 Demand 15,...
Consider the following time series:
Period 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
Demand 15, 17, 14, 7, 10, 12, 7, 5
A. using a trend projection, forecast the demand for period
9
b. calculate the MAD for this forecast
SHOW ALL WORK! DO NOT USE EXCEL OR PHSTAT!
Consider the following time series data: Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Value...
Consider the following time series data:
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Value
24
13
21
12
20
23
15
25
Compute MSE using the most recent value as the forecast for the
next period. What is the forecast for month 9?
Compute MSE using the average of all the data available as the
forecast for the next period. What is the forecast for month
9?
Which method appears to provide the better forecast?
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