Question

Part A: Describe how might trends mentioned in the articles provided, affect decisions and strategies of corporations and managers; in consideration of areas such as growth, sales, production, alliances, mergers, competition, exporting/importing goods or services, outsourcing, etc.

Part B: What affect might these trends have on national or domestic businesses and consumers?

6 Key Economic Trends for 2018

From tax reform to a changing global landscape, these are the major forces affecting the economy in the coming year.

The economy is entering 2018 in a sweet spot: Unemployment is at a 17-year low and the stock market’s record-setting bull run created more than $7 trillion in new wealth last year, generating a surge in consumer spending. Despite years of above-trend growth, inflation remains tame, a likely sign that the current business cycle still has room for further expansion.

In 2017, the current recovery became one of the longest running in recent history—most business cycles average around six years in length. Despite this, many indicators suggest there may still be room for expansion into 2018 and beyond.

Now, 2018 looks like it may push the economy still higher, beyond what many assumed was possible. US GDP growth is forecast to be between 3 and 4 percent this year, bolstered by growing exports, stabilizing energy prices and rising consumer spending.

These are the six key factors that could shape the economy’s development in the coming year:

1. Strengthening Global Demand

Growth across the industrialized world is finally gaining momentum and is forecast to accelerate even further in Europe and Japan. Global GDP is projected to expand at a 4 percent rate in 2018, up from the 3.75 percent estimate for 2017.

The European Union’s above-trend growth rate in 2017 gave the European Central Bank enough confidence to begin talking about normalizing monetary policy, and political risks to the currency union seem to be fading. Japan’s economy has also strengthened as stimulus from quantitative easing and negative interest rates began to take hold.

Stronger growth across the developed world should be good news for American businesses. Not only do wealthy European and Japanese consumers represent a large market for US exports, but the tapering of quantitative easing abroad is also expected to restore balance to currency exchange rates, making American goods more competitive overseas.

In the developing world, India is projected to grow faster than China for the first time in 25 years. This is a sign of the maturation of the Chinese economy, which is shifting away from export-focused manufacturing as a service-based consumer society emerges. The rise of China’s middle class could create a large market for foreign goods, bolstering demand for American technology and intellectual property.

2. Fading Energy Drags

Oil prices are stabilizing, and the resurgence of drilling should boost capital spending in American oil patch towns. The global oil glut temporarily halted the domestic shale boom, but improvements in horizontal drilling technology have made exploration in many of America’s oil fields profitable—even at current prices.

The US became the world’s top fuel exporter in 2016, and the nation’s refineries should continue to ramp up production in 2018. Global vehicle sales reached 94 million in 2016, suggesting strong future energy needs. Despite improvements in fuel efficiency—and the rapid emergence of electric technologies—the world’s growing demand for fuel is expected to keep energy prices firm in the coming year.

3. Tax Reform Taking Hold

This year will see the implementation of far-reaching legislation that will overhaul almost every aspect of the federal tax code. The immediate impact of tax reform will be to cut federal revenues by $205 billion in 2018, leaving more money in consumers’ hands. This should support faster growth in the near term, adding possibly a full percentage point to the rate of GDP expansion this year.

The longer-term effects of the legislation are more difficult to predict. If businesses accelerate the pace of capital investment in response to new incentives, the bill could have a substantial and lasting impact on economic growth. But there is little historical precedent to inform predictions, and the bill’s true consequences will continue to unfold over the next decade.

4. Rebounding From Natural Disasters

Natural disasters may have shaved as much as half of a percentage point from GDP growth in 2017, but the rebuilding efforts in Texas and Florida promise to generate a surge of activity in the coming months. While the productivity lost as a result of the hurricanes can never be recovered, repairing the storms’ damage should provide a tailwind for the construction sector through the winter and spring.

5. Nearing Full Employment

America’s headline unemployment rate has fallen to a level consistent with full employment, and 2017 saw the nation’s involuntary part-time workforce virtually disappear. However, approximately 1.5 million prime working-age people are still missing from the labor market. These workforce dropouts are slowly returning as opportunities arise, but the economy could sustain above-trend job creation for some time before the workforce participation rate for young people returns to its pre-recession norm.

6. Shifting Workforce Demographics

Much like in 2017, the aging US population could continue to restrain the growth of the workforce in 2018. Prior to the last decade, the workforce was adding some 200,000 new workers every month; as the baby-boom generation retires, the workforce’s monthly rate of expansion has slowed to below 125,000.

The forecast of faster growth over the next several years amid this slower-growing workforce should translate into faster labor productivity growth, breaking a decade-long spell of measured productivity. This flies in the face of the consensus but would begin to explain why we see innovation everywhere but in the metrics.

Overall, 2018 will undoubtedly bring surprises and unexpected headwinds. But the combination of strong global growth, low inflation and an accommodative monetary policy should support continued expansion. As the recovery nears completion, American households should enjoy the benefits of a competitive labor market and rising asset prices throughout the year.

10 global trade trends we’ll be watching in 2018

1. The CPTPP

Though President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the TPP in January, the remaining 11 countries are working to resurrect the deal as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). This deal, if signed, would eliminate approximately 95% of tariffs on trade between these countries, who have a combined GDP of over $10 trillion USD.

In November, Canada surprised the other 10 countries by declining to sign the agreement, to the surprise of the negotiators and the Canadian international trade community. However, amid efforts to diversify exports beyond the American market, it seems unlikely that Canada will continue to drag its heels on an opportunity to gain preferential access to the Japanese market in particular. Expect any final issues to be resolved and the CPTPP to be signed sometime in 2018.

2. Ongoing, contentious Brexit talks

By December 2017, the UK has completed the first phase of Brexit negotiations with the EU, covering issues such as the Irish border, citizens’ rights and financial settlements. The second phase of negotiations will cover the UK’s transition period after formally leaving the EU in March 2019. Discussions over the long-term relationship between the UK and EU will be included in phase three.

This process was complicated on December 13, when several Conservative British MPs joined the opposition to vote for an amendment requiring British Parliament to debate and vote on any final deal with the EU before it can be approved.

The second phase of Brexit negotiations are planned for 2018, and are expected to present few greater challenges than the first phase. The final phase on the long-term relationship between the UK and EU, however, presents several important questions about economic integration and free trade that Britain’s politicians and citizens have not yet agreed upon.

With two sets of challenging negotiations, and the extra hurdle of parliamentary approval, the odds that talks will drag into the final three months before the UK leaves the EU on March 29, 2019 remain high.

3. Sustainable, cleantech exports

If you’re involved in the clean tech and sustainability sector, 2018 should be a strong year for you. Despite the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, global regulations are still trending towards stricter environmental and emissions regulations, requiring businesses to invest in cleaner technology in order to meet those standards. According to EDC President and CEO Benoit Daignault, total global investment in cleantech has now exceeded $1 trillion and will reach $2.5 trillion by 2020.

Canada in particular is placing great emphasis on this industry. The Canadian government promised $1 billion towards clean tech in its 2017 budget for R&D. The Trade Commissioner Service is also hiring 15 new Trade Commissioners to focus specifically on cleantech.

4. India, Brazil, and New Zealand – the rising stars of global trade

If you’re looking for new markets over the next 12 months, Morgan Stanley recommends you take a hard look at India. They argue the country’s increased digitization, new tax laws and younger demographics present a bright future, and predict 7.5% GDP growth in 2018. Morgan Stanley also predicts that India will be the world’s fastest growing economy over the coming decade.

Brazil will also see a quick recession recovery, growing an expected by 3.1% in 2018, according to the Brazilian government.

If you’re more interested in fully developed markets, Forbes ranked New Zealand second on its 2018 Best Countries for Doing Business rankings, citing its 3.6% economic growth in 2017, among other factors. The country also ranked highly in several categories for ease of doing business, including first in IP rights, bureaucracy/red tape levels surrounding business, and Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index.

5. Meaningful action to reduce oil dependency

As Venezuela continues to suffer through the collapse of its oil-dependent economy, and the U.S. plans to become a net exporter of oil within 10 years, several oil-dependent economies are taking steps to diversify their economies.

In Russia, Putin’s approval levels are dropping as the economy struggles through lower oil revenues. Despite making fiscal changes to reduce the national budget’s dependence on oil revenues, he may push for new measures to improve his chances in the country’s 2018 presidential elections.

Saudi Arabia has plans to sell about 5% of Saudi Aramco, the state-owned oil company, through an IPO in 2018 and expects to generate up to $100 billion for the country’s Vision 2030 program, designed to shift the Saudi economy away from oil dependency towards tech and entertainment services.

Nigeria and Angola, meanwhile, are looking to agriculture to reduce their oil dependency issues. Nigeria, dependent on oil for 70% of government revenues, has launched a new program to increase yam exports to Europe and the U.S., as the country produces 60% of the world’s yams. Angola are instead focused on a broader approach to tap into their agricultural potential, which includes producing more cereals, milk, chicken, cassava, and other products.

6. Banks taking on blockchain

It is practically impossible these days to tune into the business or financial news and not hear a story about the latest blockchain or cryptocurrency development. Blockchain technology, allowing multiple players to have access to a live, unalterable digital ledger, offers game-changing possibilities for international trade finance. In 2018 this buzzworthy fintech is moving beyond Silicon Valley start-ups, into the mainstream world of global financial institutions.

In March, 2017, we reported on how banks were working to bring the advantages of blockchain technology to their corporate clients. In May, the R3 Consortium, made up of of 70 of the world’s biggest financial institutions and created to research and develop blockchain adoption, announced it had secured its largest ever investment. Then in October 2017, seven major banks partnered with R3 and Finastra to develop a blockchain-based marketplace for syndicated loans. On December 6, Amazon joined the blockchain party, announcing a partnership with R3 to allow the Corda platform to be the first distributed ledger technology to operate on the Amazon Web Services Platform.

What will we see in 2018? Swiss global financial company UBS has led an initiative to create a “utility settlement coin” that would represent each major national currency. If this coin is launched, the Corda platform could be adapted to facilitate its use.

IBM is working on launching their own blockchain platform that would allow banks to rapidly clear global payment transactions. There are also several start-ups working on digitizing the bill of lading process.

2018 could be the year some of the blockchain-based payment initiatives move from development to adoption.

7. Adoption of futuristic supply chain technology

Machine learning, automation and robotics, self-driving vehicles, new tracking technology – all of these futuristic supply chain tools will see major developments and implementation in 2018.

The past year was a big one for self-driving vehicles, culminating with the reveal of Tesla’s new fully electric semi, gaining pre-orders from big players such as PepsiCo, UPS and Walmart. Companies invested over $1 billion into self-driving and other trucking technologies in 2017.

Speaking of investing in supply chain technology, over $4 billion was invested in AI by U.S. venture capitalists in the past year. One application that has seen immediate return for companies adopting machine learning capable AI is Multi-Echelon Inventory Optimization (MEIO), which has been shown to reduce inventories by 30% while maintaining or improving customer fill rates.

Robots will also continue to play more of a role in warehouses in 2018. While some are increasingly capable of working independently, replacing human workers on the floor, others are working alongside humans, or being controlled by humans using VR applications. There’s no doubt that the demand for the skills needed to work with robotics will continue to rise in the year ahead.

8. Planning for the possibility of a world without NAFTA

The sixth round of NAFTA talks is set to kick off in Montreal January 23. But as the negotiations near, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of positivity. The first five rounds reportedly saw very little progress, putting even more pressure on this next round.

What’s the problem? The U.S. is seemingly immovable on five issues that pose major problems for the agreement’s other two member countries, Canada and Mexico.

The five issues include:

Removal of reciprocity in government procurement at the sub-national level

Changes to the rules of origin in the auto sector

Elimination of the independent dispute resolution clause

End of Canadian supply management of the dairy, eggs and poultry industries

Addition of a “sunset clause” on NAFTA itself

“NAFTA, by itself, will not collapse,” said Mexico’s Economy Minister ldefonso Guajardo in October, but even if Mr. Guajardo is right, it may change drastically from what we have in place today.

If this really does spell the end of NAFTA, the Canadian auto, pulp and paper, chemicals, mining, aerospace and oil and gas industries are likely to be most affected, according to BMO chief economist Douglas Porter.

Even without NAFTA, trade between the three nations is inevitable. Supply chains between Canada and Mexico criss-cross the U.S. How businesses adapt to the realities of a new – or non-existent – NAFTA, is something we’ll be watching closely in 2018.

9. Cyber threats and IP risks

As technology gets more sophisticated and ingrained in our work and personal lives, so too does the threat of cyber security breaches, which in turn compromises our intellectual property. Sixty-four percent of companies surveyed reported some experience of web-based attacks in the past year. Companies of all sizes are targeted and face the risk of cyber threats from simply being connected to the internet. And the costs are large – the average cost of a data breach in Canada is a jaw-dropping $6.03M.

So what types of threats are growing in 2018? Phishing, social engineering attacks, malicious code, botnets, denial of service attacks and ransomeware are all on the rise.

Ransomware in particular is growing in frequency, attacks rose an alarming 50% in 2016. Demonstrative of the damage a ransomeware attack can cause was the aftermath of the WannaCry attack in May 2017. Hundreds of thousands of individuals lost access to their data, compromising intellectual property, private customer information, and disrupting commercial processes.

As a business, it has never been more crucial to include cybersecurity programs directly in your strategy, and engage IT professionals to help cover all aspects of your web-based properties.

10. Demand for global trade skills higher than ever

Despite continuing turmoil and uncertainty on the global political stage, Canadian businesses still hold an optimistic outlook about their export opportunities. According to Export Development Canada’s Fall 2017 Survey, the majority of respondents believe that export sales will increase in 2018, citing new opportunities, growing demand, and expansion into new markets as stimulating factors.

As more businesses of all sizes get involved in international markets, the demand for talent skilled in global trade processes, is also growing.

“We hear from exporters all the time that knowledge is one of the most important tools for building international success,” said EDC Senior VP, Business Development Mairead Lavery.

In 2017, the FITTskills international trade training program underwent a major update, including the addition of 60% new content to reflect the changes we’ve seen in technology, ecommerce, trade agreements and more. In October, FITT also partnered with EDC to expand access to the available resources for businesses of all sizes looking to take advantage of international opportunities.

There’s no doubt that we all face an exciting year ahead, full of innovation, an ever-shifting global political environment, and risks, alongside ample new opportunities for business growth.

Answer 1

Answer 1. The major growth drivers will have a significant impact on the decision making process of business managers and organizations.Economic recoveries of major economic powers which are the hubs for trade and manufacturing will open up new opportunities.Increase in per capita income means more disposable income and more spending. Hence it will give a boost to manufacturing, infrastructure and consumer goods industries. Availability of more skilled and younger manpower/workforce means increased efficiency and agility. A conducive economic environment and increased transparency will increase the ease of doing business.Improvements in legal frameworks , economic policy reforms , amendment of trade agreements can provide a boost to the import and export industry. Embracing newer technologies and having economies of scale would help in operational excellence and cost savings in the long run. Consolidation is in progress in the market in a big way in the form of mergers and acquisitions,syndication. Humongous divestment plans are on the cards.The enablement of supply chian analytics,increased visibility of SCM has helped in faster and accurate decision making. All these have resulted in greater risk taking capabilities for the business managers and organizations. Those projects which were not so lucrative sometimes back will sound to be attractive and profitable becuase of low hurdle rate and higher IRR( Internal rate of returns).At the same time the increased threat of cyber attack ,data breaches , recent natural calamities ,war aggressions have made the business managers and organizations more cautious and alert. There is an increased vigilance and adoption of robust disaster managament and business continuity plans to avert any catastrophe.

Answer 2: The effects on these trends on domestic business and consumers will be as follows:

1.Increased liquidity and reduced market risk

2.Increased income and hence disposable income translating to grearer consumer spendings thereby boosting domestic businesses

3. Greater political stability ,Increased transparency ,end of red tapism will help in setting up and running new business apart from creating a conducive environment for existing businesses to operate

4. Greater divestments and mergers would mean investors would be looking for new businesses/models .There will be an opportunity for start ups for funding

5. The choices for the consumers would increase and their bargaining power would increase. Consumers will be more empowered and their rights would be protected

6. Emergence and adoption of new technologies means more business enablement and solving complex busines problems with ease and in a much cost efficient manner

7. Technologies like blockchain would help in establishing provenance in supply chain and increasing supply chain visibility and traceability

8.Businesses need to adipt more robust disaster management and business continuity plans to secure themselves.

9. tamed inflation means control on input costs for business

10. Availability of skilled manpower, mobilization of younger workforce means more efficiency

11. With increased technology adoption there will be more diverse product offerings, cost optimization and opportunities for business to focus on cost leadership or product leadership.