Question

3. Abandonment options Albert Co. is considering a four-year project that will require an initial investment of $7,000. The base-case cash flows for this project are projected to be $12,000 per year. The best-case cash flows are projected to be $20,000 per year, and the worst-case cash flows are projected to be –$1,000 per year. The company’s analysts have estimated that there is a 50% probability that the project will generate the base-case cash flows. The analysts also think that there is a 25% probability of the project generating the best-case cash flows and a 25% probability of the project generating the worst-case cash flows. What would be the expected net present value (NPV) of this project if the project’s cost of capital is 13%?

$26,225

$22,478

$24,976

$21,230

Albert now wants to take into account its ability to abandon the project at the end of year 2 if the project ends up generating the worst-case scenario cash flows. If it decides to abandon the project at the end of year 2, the company will receive a one-time net cash inflow of $4,000 (at the end of year 2). The $4,000 the company receives at the end of year 2 is the difference between the cash the company receives from selling off the project’s assets and the company’s –$1,000 cash outflow from operations. Additionally, if it abandons the project, the company will have no cash flows in years 3 and 4 of the project.

Using the information in the preceding problem, find the expected NPV of this project when taking the abandonment option into account.

$27,595

$26,281

$30,223

$24,967

What is the value of the option to abandon the project?

Answer 1