Question

Albert Co. is considering a four-year project that will require an initial investment of $15,000. The base-case cash flows for this project are projected to be $15,000 per year. The best-case cash flows are projected to be $22,000 per year, and the worst-case cash flows are projected to be –$1,500 per year. The company’s analysts have estimated that there is a 50% probability that the project will generate the base-case cash flows. The analysts also think that there is a 25% probability of the project generating the best-case cash flows and a 25% probability of the project generating the worst-case cash flows.

1. What would be the expected net present value (NPV) of this project if the project’s cost of capital is 14%?

A. $19,607

B. $17,429

C. $20,697

D. $21,786

Albert now wants to take into account its ability to abandon the project at the end of year 2 if the project ends up generating the worst-case scenario cash flows. If it decides to abandon the project at the end of year 2, the company will receive a one-time net cash inflow of $4,500 (at the end of year 2). The $4,500 the company receives at the end of year 2 is the difference between the cash the company receives from selling off the project’s assets and the company’s –$1,500 cash outflow from operations. Additionally, if it abandons the project, the company will have no cash flows in years 3 and 4 of the project.

2. Using the information in the preceding problem, find the expected NPV of this project when taking the abandonment option into account.

$21,074

$24,586

$23,415

$25,757

3. What is the value of the option to abandon the project?     

Answer 1

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