In: Statistics and Probability
Jo is 70% sure that she forgot her textbook at the library or canteen. She is 40% sure that it is at the library and 30% sure that it is at the canteen. Given that Jo already went to the canteen and noticed her textbook was not there, what is the probability that the textbook is at the library?
Let A be the event that Jo forget her text book in library and B be the event that she forgot her book in canteen.
P(A) = 0.40
P(B) = 0.30
P(A or B) = 0.70
P(A and B) is zero, since cannot forgot her book both in canteen and library.
We have to find probability P(A|Bc), that is probability that the textbook is at the library given that the book is not in canteen.