Question

Industrial Engineering: (Forcasting and Planning)

List and describe two examples each of variation, foreseen uncertainty, and unforeseen uncertainty in manufacturing, supply chain, or another industrial setting.

Answer 1

Variation - Variation is a devaition from the norm or the regular and predictable behavior resulting in various issues across the processes in supply chain.

Example 1

Considering manufacturing of pharmaceutical drug substances which are produced using various ingredients and strictly need to follow the process, specifications and the exact mix of ingredients to produce quality output. Any variations in the process would result in the product deviating from its recipe resulting in unsafe products and hence is highly hazardous to health of the patients consuming the medicine.

Example 2

Consider the aviation industry where passengers are commuted through flights from one location to another location. The industry should maintain near zero defect processes in order to avoid any safety risks to the passengers. Variation in the specifications set for the engine would result in unstable movement of the flight leading to accident and loss of lives.

Foreseen uncertainty - This is an uncertainty or risk that is expected to an extent based on which the risk management plan is created. It is also called 'Known unknowns'.

Example 1

In a pharmaceutical industry, the risk of tampering or contamination at warehouses is an expected or foreseen uncertainty for which the firms usually package the medicines with tamper-sealed packages.

Example 2

The risk of facing strong winds during flight is common in aviation industry for which the plan would be to handle the controls effectively by lowering speeds during the same.

Unforeseen uncertainty - This is an uncertainty or risk that is unexpected and hence is difficult to create a contigency plan. These kind of risks have more impact on the process or the system.

Example 1

In the pharmaceutical industry, the risk of random error in the processes or in the recipes or in equipment setup is considered as an unforeseen uncertainty based on which the error adjustments need to be done once the uncertainty happens.

Example 2

In aviation industry, the unexpected uncertainty can occur due to improper maintenance of the aircraft resulting in incomplete lubrication with oil thus affecting the smooth functioning of the aircraft.