Question
In: Statistics and Probability
Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 23 13 20 12 18 21 16...
| Month | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Value | 23 | 13 | 20 | 12 | 18 | 21 | 16 |
| (b) | Develop a three-month moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8. |
| If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not round intermediate calculation. | |
| MSE: | |
| The forecast for month 8: | |
| (c) | Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8. |
| If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not round intermediate calculation. | |
| MSE: | |
| The forecast for month 8: | |
| (d) | Compare the three-month moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? |
| - Select your answer -3-month moving averageexponential smoothingItem 7 | |
| (e) | Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient α that results in the smallest MSE. |
| If required, round your answer to two decimal places. | |
|
α = (I'M LOOKING FOR E) |
Solutions
Expert Solution
## for d ) used different trial and for alpha = 0.4 have less MSE than other apha value
orchestra answered 2 years agoRelated Solutions
Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 23 13 20 12 18 21 16...
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Value
23
13
20
12
18
21
16
(b)
Develop a three-month moving average for this time series.
Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8.
If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not
round intermediate calculation.
MSE:
The forecast for month 8:
(c)
Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing
values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month
8.
If required, round...
Consider the following time series data: Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 23...
Consider the following time series data:
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Value
23
15
20
12
18
22
15
(a)
Choose the correct time series plot.
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
- Select your answer -Graph (i)Graph (ii)Graph (iii)Graph
(iv)Item 1
What type of pattern exists in the data?
- Select your answer -Positive trend patternHorizontal
patternVertical patternNegative trend patternItem 2
(b)
Develop a three-month moving average for this time series.
Compute MSE and a forecast for month...
Consider the following time series data: Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 23...
Consider the following time series data:
Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Value 23 14 19 13 19 24 14
(a) Compute MSE using the most recent value as the forecast for
the next period. If required, round your answer to one decimal
place.
What is the forecast for month 8? If required, round your answer
to one decimal place. Do not round intermediate calculation.
(b) Compute MSE using the average of all the data available as
the...
Consider the following time series data: Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 23...
Consider the following time series data:
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Value
23
13
21
13
19
21
17
(a)
Choose the correct time series plot.
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
- Select your answer -Graph (i)Graph (ii)Graph (iii)Graph
(iv)Item 1
What type of pattern exists in the data?
- Select your answer -Positive trend patternHorizontal
patternVertical patternNegative trend patternItem 2
(b)
Develop a three-month moving average for this time series.
Compute MSE and a forecast for month...
Consider the following time series data. Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 23...
Consider the following time series data.
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Value
23
11
21
10
20
23
15
Round your answers to two decimal places.
a. Compute MSE using the most recent value as
the forecast for the next period.
Mean squared error is
What is the forecast for month ?
b. Compute MSE using the average of all data
available as the forecast for the next period.
Mean squared error is
What is the forecast...
Consider the following time series data: Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 23...
Consider the following time series data:
Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Value 23 15 20 12 18 22 15
(b)
Develop a three-month moving average for this time series.
Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8.
If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not
round intermediate calculation.
MSE:
The forecast for month 8:
(c)
Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing
values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast...
Periods 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 12% 14% 15% 16% 18%...
Periods
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
12%
14%
15%
16%
18%
20%
1
0.990
0.980
0.971
0.962
0.952
0.943
0.935
0.926
0.917
0.909
0.893
0.877
0.870
0.862
0.847
0.833
2
0.980
0.961
0.943
0.925
0.907
0.890
0.873
0.857
0.842
0.826
0.797
0.769
0.756
0.743
0.718
0.694
3
0.971
0.942
0.915
0.889
0.864
0.840
0.816
0.794
0.772
0.751
0.712
0.675
0.658
0.641
0.609
0.579
4
0.961
0.924
0.888
0.855
0.823
0.792
0.763
0.735
0.708
0.683
0.636...
x1 2 6 9 13 20 y1 7 18 9 26 23 What is the value...
x1
2
6
9
13
20
y1
7
18
9
26
23
What is the value of standard error of the estimates?
Test for a significant relationship by using the t test. Use α
= .05
Use the F test to test for a significant relationship. Use α =
.05. What is your conclusion?
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 14 17 12 18 15 Calculate the...
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
18
14
17
12
18
15
Calculate the measures of forecast error using the naive (most
recent value) method and the average of historical data (to 2
decimals).
Naive method
Historical data
Mean absolute error
Mean squared error
Mean absolute percentage error
Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 13...
Consider the following time series data.
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
18
13
16
11
17
14
a. Use a smoothing constant of a = 0.4 to
compute the MSE (to 2 decimals).
(___)
2.Consider the following time series data.
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
19
13
17
12
17
15
b. Develop the three-week moving average
forecasts for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week
7 (to 2 decimals if...
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