Question

In: Statistics and Probability

Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 23 13 20 12 18 21 16...

Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Value 23 13 20 12 18 21 16
(b) Develop a three-month moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8.
If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not round intermediate calculation.
MSE:  
The forecast for month 8:  
(c) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8.
If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not round intermediate calculation.
MSE:  
The forecast for month 8:  
(d) Compare the three-month moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?
- Select your answer -3-month moving averageexponential smoothingItem 7
(e) Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient α that results in the smallest MSE.
If required, round your answer to two decimal places.

α =  

(I'M LOOKING FOR E)

Solutions

Expert Solution

## for d ) used different trial and for alpha = 0.4 have less MSE than other apha value


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