Question
In: Math
Consider the following time series data. Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 23...
|
Consider the following time series data.
Round your answers to two decimal places. a. Compute MSE using the most recent value as the forecast for the next period. Mean squared error is What is the forecast for month ? b. Compute MSE using the average of all data available as the forecast for the next period. Mean squared error is What is the forecast for month ? c. Which method appears to provide the better forecast? |
Solutions
Expert Solution
| Month | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Value | 23 | 11 | 21 | 10 | 20 | 23 | 15 |
a. Compute MSE using the most recent value as the forecast for the next period.
recent value method includes the forecasted value from the most recent period
Eg. Current month's forecast value = Last month's actual value
| Month | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| Value | 23 | 11 | 21 | 10 | 20 | 23 | 15 | - |
| Forecast | - | 23 | 11 | 21 | 10 | 20 | 23 |
 |
| Error (Forecast - Value) | 12 | -10 | 11 | -10 | -3 | 8 | - | |
 |
144 | 100 | 121 | 100 | 9 | 64 | - |
Mean squared error is = 
= 
...........We use 6 since we have 6 set of forecast with their
actual values
= 
What is the forecast for month 8? = 
b. Compute MSE using the average of all data available as the forecast for the next period.
| Month | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| Value | 23 | 11 | 21 | 10 | 20 | 23 | 15 | |
| Forecast | - | 23.00 | 17.00 | 18.33 | 16.25 | 17.00 | 18.00 |  |
| Error | 12.00 | -4.00 | 8.33 | -3.75 | -6.00 | 3.00 | ||
|
|
144.00 | 16.00 | 69.44 | 14.06 | 36.00 | 9.00 |
Average = 
Eg For forecast of 5 th month we will take sum of values upto the month of 5 (23 + 11 + 21 + 10)
= 65
Average forecast for 5th month = 65 / 4 = 16.25
Mean squared error is =
= 
= 
What is the forecast for month 8? = 
c. Which method appears to provide the better forecast?
Average forecast
This is because it has a lower MSE (lesser errors ) than Recent value forecast method.
milcah answered 1 year agoRelated Solutions
Consider the following time series data: Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 23...
Consider the following time series data:
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Value
23
15
20
12
18
22
15
(a)
Choose the correct time series plot.
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
- Select your answer -Graph (i)Graph (ii)Graph (iii)Graph
(iv)Item 1
What type of pattern exists in the data?
- Select your answer -Positive trend patternHorizontal
patternVertical patternNegative trend patternItem 2
(b)
Develop a three-month moving average for this time series.
Compute MSE and a forecast for month...
Consider the following time series data: Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 23...
Consider the following time series data:
Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Value 23 14 19 13 19 24 14
(a) Compute MSE using the most recent value as the forecast for
the next period. If required, round your answer to one decimal
place.
What is the forecast for month 8? If required, round your answer
to one decimal place. Do not round intermediate calculation.
(b) Compute MSE using the average of all the data available as
the...
Consider the following time series data: Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 23...
Consider the following time series data:
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Value
23
13
21
13
19
21
17
(a)
Choose the correct time series plot.
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
- Select your answer -Graph (i)Graph (ii)Graph (iii)Graph
(iv)Item 1
What type of pattern exists in the data?
- Select your answer -Positive trend patternHorizontal
patternVertical patternNegative trend patternItem 2
(b)
Develop a three-month moving average for this time series.
Compute MSE and a forecast for month...
Consider the following time series data: Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 23...
Consider the following time series data:
Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Value 23 15 20 12 18 22 15
(b)
Develop a three-month moving average for this time series.
Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8.
If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not
round intermediate calculation.
MSE:
The forecast for month 8:
(c)
Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing
values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast...
Consider the following time series data. Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 22...
Consider the following time series data.
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Value
22
13
18
11
19
22
14
Round your answers to two decimal places.
a. Compute MSE using the most recent value as
the forecast for the next period.
Mean squared error is
What is the forecast for month ?
b. Compute MSE using the average of all data
available as the forecast for the next period.
Mean squared error is
What is the forecast...
Consider the following time series data. Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 25...
Consider the following time series data.
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Value
25
14
21
13
20
24
16
(a)
Construct a time series plot.
What type of pattern exists in the data?
The data appear to follow a seasonal pattern.
The data appear to follow a cyclical
pattern.
The data appear to follow a trend pattern.
The data appear to follow a horizontal pattern.
(b)
Develop the three-month moving average forecasts for this time
series.
Month...
Consider the following time series data: Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 24...
Consider the following time series data:
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Value
24
12
20
13
18
24
14
(a)
Compute MSE using the most recent value as the forecast for the
next period.
If required, round your answer to one decimal place.
What is the forecast for month 8?
If required, round your answer to one decimal place. Do not
round intermediate calculation.
(b)
Compute MSE using the average of all the data available as the...
Consider the following time series data: Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Value...
Consider the following time series data:
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Value
24
13
21
12
20
23
15
25
Compute MSE using the most recent value as the forecast for the
next period. What is the forecast for month 9?
Compute MSE using the average of all the data available as the
forecast for the next period. What is the forecast for month
9?
Which method appears to provide the better forecast?
Consider the following time series data: Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 25...
Consider the following time series data:
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Value
25
12
20
11
20
23
15
(a)
Compute MSE using the most recent value as the forecast for the
next period.
If required, round your answer to one decimal place.
What is the forecast for month 8?
If required, round your answer to one decimal place. Do not
round intermediate calculation.
(b)
Compute MSE using the average of all the data available as the...
Consider the following time series data: Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 25...
Consider the following time series data:
Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Value 25 14 19 11 18 22 16
(a) Compute MSE using the most recent value as the forecast for
the next period. If required, round your answer to one decimal
place. What is the forecast for month 8? If required, round your
answer to one decimal place. Do not round intermediate
calculation.
(b) Compute MSE using the average of all the data available as
the...
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