In: Finance
A company will earn 10% returns in a poor economy, 15% returns in a normal economy, and 25% returns in a booming economy. What is the standard deviation if there is a 25% chance of a poor economy and a 25% chance of a booming economy?
5.45%
4.91%
10.83%
11.18%
6.12%
SD = SQRT [ Sum [ Prob * ( X - Avg X)^2 ] ]
Avg Ret = Sum [ Prob * Ret ]
Avg Ret:
Scenario | Prob | Ret | Exp Ret |
Poor Economy | 0.25 | 10% | 0.0250 |
Normal Economy | 0.50 | 15% | 0.0750 |
Booming Economy | 0.25 | 25% | 0.0625 |
Expected Ret | 0.1625 |
SD:
Scenario | Prob | Ret (X) | X - Avg X | (X - Avg X)^2 | Prob(X-Avg X)^2 |
Poor Economy | 0.25 | 0.1000 | -0.0625 | 0.0039 | 0.0010 |
Normal Economy | 0.50 | 0.1500 | -0.0125 | 0.0002 | 0.0001 |
Booming Economy | 0.25 | 0.2500 | 0.0875 | 0.0077 | 0.0019 |
Variance = Sum [ Prob * (X-Avg X)^2 ] | 0.0030 | ||||
SD = SQRT [ Variance ] | 0.0545 |
Thus SD is 5.45%