Question

How could Africa end up in the Malthusian demographic equilibrium? What are the implications for world income inequality and migration if Africa reaches the Malthusian equilibrium?

Answer 1

The Malthusian theory explained that the human population grows more rapidly than the food supply until famines, war or disease reduces the population. He believed that the human population has risen over the past three centuries.

African demography is unique. It is the only continent that will double in size, reaching 2 billion people by 2045 at current rates. Some countries, such as Liberia and Niger, are growing faster still, doubling in size in less than 20 years—a stunning increase that is causing forecasts of Malthusian disaster for countries that cannot feed themselves. With 12% of the world's population, sub-Saharan Africa has 57% of the deaths of mothers in childbirth, 49% of its infant mortality and 67% of HIV infections.

Family planning is much less readily available in Africa than it was in Asia. By some estimates, a quarter of married women want contraceptives but cannot get them. That reflects reduced aid for family planning in the past 15 years and political ambivalence about cutting fertility in Africa itself. Uganda's president once told a student gathering “your job is to produce children”; a Ugandan village chief says “to avoid having intruders grab our land we must keep producing many children.”

Population growth in Africa is extremely high. In most countries it is above 2.7 per cent. In 28 African countries, the population will double over the period from 2010 to 2050. In 2050, the continent’s population could reach two billion. Also the working-age population, the group that typically feeds migration, is set to increase even more rapidly—from about 480 million in 2013 to 1.3 billion in 2050.

In most African countries, the population growth over the last 30 years has, on average, been only slightly lower than the economic growth and the growth in food production. The mostly unproductive agricultural sector cannot adequately feed Africa’s poor. The soil is depleted, and most farmers are disconnected from markets. For this reason, food imports to Africa are increasing substantially. In addition, many African states are obliged to import energy in order to cope with the hunger for it.

Some Africans think they face demographic disaster, others that they could reap a demographic dividend. They will probably get neither

A population is in Malthusian equilibrium when all of its production is used only for subsistence. Malthusian equilibrium is a locally stable and a dynamic equilibrium.

If Africa reaches the Malthusian equilibrium?

1.The Rise in the Level of Income Per Capita

2.The Decline in Infant and Child Mortality

3.The Rise in the Demand for Human Capital

4. The Rise in the Demand for Human Capital: Reinforcing Mechanisms

5.The Decline in the Gender Gap