Question

In: Statistics and Probability

Consider the following daily time series for days 1-14. Use this information to answer the questions...

Consider the following daily time series for days 1-14. Use this information to answer the questions below.

Day Daily Steps
1 2270
2 3869
3 3285
4 4598
5 3539
6 2474
7 2246
8 4800
9 3696
10 4817
11 3261
12 1839
13 5121
14 2800

Step 1 of 7: What is the 3-day Moving Average forecast for time period 4?
Round to the nearest whole number.

Step 2 of 7: What is the 3-day Moving Average forecast for time period t = 15?
Round to the nearest whole number.

Step 3 of 7: Using the 3-day Moving Average forecasts for t = 4 thru t = 14 only, calculate the MAD.
Round the MAD value to the nearest whole number..

Step 4 of 7: What is the 4-day Moving Average forecast for time period 5?
Round to the nearest whole number..

Step 5 of 7: What is the 4-day Moving Average forecast for time period t = 15?

Step 6 of 7: Using the 4-day Moving Average forecasts for t = 5 thru t = 14 only, calculate the MAD.
Round the MAD value to the nearest whole number.

Step 7 of 7: Compare the MAD values for the 3-day Moving Average forecasts and the 4-day Moving Average forecasts.
Which set of forecasts --- 3-day or 4-day Moving Averages -- is preferred and why?

Can you please explain through excel? Any help would be appreciated!

Solutions

Expert Solution

Step 1 of 7: What is the 3-day Moving Average forecast for time period 4?
3141

Step 2 of 7: What is the 3-day Moving Average forecast for time period t = 15?
3253

Step 3 of 7: Using the 3-day Moving Average forecasts for t = 4 thru t = 14 only, calculate the MAD.
1268

The calculations are:

Step 4 of 7: What is the 4-day Moving Average forecast for time period 5?
3506

Step 5 of 7: What is the 4-day Moving Average forecast for time period t = 15?

3255

Step 6 of 7: Using the 4-day Moving Average forecasts for t = 5 thru t = 14 only, calculate the MAD.
1175

The calculations are:

Step 7 of 7: Compare the MAD values for the 3-day Moving Average forecasts and the 4-day Moving Average forecasts.
Which set of forecasts --- 3-day or 4-day Moving Averages -- is preferred and why?

3-day Moving Averages forecasts is preferred because it has a lower MAD value.

Please give me a thumbs-up if this helps you out. Thank you!

orchestra answered 1 year ago
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