Question

In: Statistics and Probability

1) Using a 5 period simple moving average, the forecast for period 13 will be:

Question 1 contains the actual values for 12 periods (listed in order, 1-12). In Excel, create forecasts for periods 6-13 using each of the following methods: 5 period simple moving average; 4 period weighted moving average (0.63, 0.26, 0.08, 0.03); exponential smoothing (alpha = 0.23 and the forecast for period 5 = 53); linear regression with the equation based on all 12 periods; and quadratic regression with the equation based on all 12 periods. Round all numerical answers to two decimal places.

The actual values for 12 periods (shown in order) are:

(1) 45  (2) 52 (3) 48 (4) 59  (5) 55  (6) 57  (7) 64  (8) 58  (9) 68  (10) 66  (11) 72  (12) 75

1) Using a 5 period simple moving average, the forecast for period 13 will be:

2) Using the 4 period weighted moving average, the forecast for period 13 will be:

3) With exponential smoothing, the forecast for period 13 will be:

4) With linear regression, the forecast for period 13 will be:

5) With quadratic regression, the forecast for period 13 will be:

6) Considering only the forecasts for period 6-12, what is the lowest MAD value for any of the methods?

Solutions

Expert Solution

As per company policies, I am answering 4 PARTS only

D) A) B) C)
T Demand Trend MA(5) WMA(4) ES(a=0.23)
1 45 46.513 #N/A
2 52 48.950 45.000
3 48 51.387 46.610
4 59 53.824 46.930
5 55 56.261 47.480 49.706
6 57 58.698 51.800 51.610 50.924
7 64 61.135 54.200 51.690 52.321
8 58 63.572 56.600 57.950 55.007
9 68 66.009 58.600 56.330 55.696
10 66 68.446 60.400 59.230 58.526
11 72 70.883 62.600 62.820 60.245
12 75 73.321 65.600 61.660 62.948
13 , FORECAST 75.758 67.800 68.010 65.720
Intercept= 44.07576
Slope= 2.437063

excel sheet: replace " =" by "="

D) A) B) C)
t demand trend MA(5) WMA(4) ES(a =0.23)
1 45 =$D$22+$D$23*A3 #N/A
2 52 =$D$22+$D$23*A4 =B3
3 48 =$D$22+$D$23*A5 =G4+0.23*(B4-G4)
4 59 =$D$22+$D$23*A6 =G5+0.23*(B5-G5)
5 55 =$D$22+$D$23*A7 =0.63*B3+0.26*B4+0.08*B5+0.03*B6 =G6+0.23*(B6-G6)
6 57 =$D$22+$D$23*A8 =AVERAGE(B3:B7) =0.63*B4+0.26*B5+0.08*B6+0.03*B7 =G7+0.23*(B7-G7)
7 64 =$D$22+$D$23*A9 =AVERAGE(B4:B8) =0.63*B5+0.26*B6+0.08*B7+0.03*B8 =G8+0.23*(B8-G8)
8 58 =$D$22+$D$23*A10 =AVERAGE(B5:B9) =0.63*B6+0.26*B7+0.08*B8+0.03*B9 =G9+0.23*(B9-G9)
9 68 =$D$22+$D$23*A11 =AVERAGE(B6:B10) =0.63*B7+0.26*B8+0.08*B9+0.03*B10 =G10+0.23*(B10-G10)
10 66 =$D$22+$D$23*A12 =AVERAGE(B7:B11) =0.63*B8+0.26*B9+0.08*B10+0.03*B11 =G11+0.23*(B11-G11)
11 72 =$D$22+$D$23*A13 =AVERAGE(B8:B12) =0.63*B9+0.26*B10+0.08*B11+0.03*B12 =G12+0.23*(B12-G12)
12 75 =$D$22+$D$23*A14 =AVERAGE(B9:B13) =0.63*B10+0.26*B11+0.08*B12+0.03*B13 =G13+0.23*(B13-G13)
13 , FORECAST =$D$22+$D$23*A15 =AVERAGE(B10:B14) =0.63*B11+0.26*B12+0.08*B13+0.03*B14 =G14+0.23*(B14-G14)
intercept = =INTERCEPT(B3:B14,A3:A14)
slope = =SLOPE(B3:B14,A3:A14)

orchestra answered 2 years ago
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