In: Operations Management
Week Number |
|||||||||
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
|
Weight |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5% |
10% |
10% |
20% |
25% |
30% |
Cases Shipped |
2,500 |
2,650 |
2,325 |
2,200 |
2,700 |
2,750 |
2,900 |
2,850 |
2,925 |
Using weighted average model for forecasting, we know that
Forecast = ∑(weight of week*cases shipped in that week)
Here weights for 10th, 11th and 12th week = 0. SO we need not consider those weeks. We only will consider 13th to 18th week for calculating the forecast for 19th week.
Forecast for week 19 = weight for week 18*cases shipped in week 18 + weight for week 17*cases shipped in week 17 + weight for week 16*cases shipped in week 16 + weight for week 15*cases shipped in week 15 + weight for week 14*cases shipped in week 14 + weight for week 13*cases shipped in week 13
The data is:
Week |
Weight |
Cases shipped |
13 |
5% = 0.05 |
2200 |
14 |
10% = 0.1 |
2700 |
15 |
10% = 0.1 |
2750 |
16 |
20% = 0.2 |
2900 |
17 |
25% = 0.25 |
2850 |
18 |
30% = 0.3 |
2925 |
Hence forecast for week 19 = (0.05*2200 + 0.1*2700 + 0.1*2750 + 0.2*2900 + 0.25*2850 + 0.3*2925)
= 110 + 270 + 275 + 580 + 712.5 + 877.5
= 2825
Forecast for week 19 = 2825
.
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