In: Economics
In May 2010, the size of the Greece’s budget deficit increased its probability of default and triggered a crisis across the Eurozone. To decrease the budget deficit, the Greek government proposed many measures. A few of them involved decreasing pension and/or benefits payments to retiree. Use the life-Cycle hypothesis to evaluate the impact of an unexpected decrease in the income of the retirees in Greece.
The Greek debt crisis is the dangerous amount of sovereign debt
Greece owed the European Union between 2008 and 2018. In 2010,
Greece said it might default on its debt, threatening the viability
of the eurozone itself.
To avoid default, the EU loaned Greece enough to continue making
payments.
Since the debt crisis began in 2010, the various European
authorities and private investors have loaned Greece nearly 320
billion euros.
It was the biggest financial rescue of a bankrupt country in
history. As of January 2019, Greece has only repaid 41.6 billion
euros. It has scheduled debt payments beyond 2060.
In return for the loan, the EU required Greece to adopt austerity
measures. These reforms were intended to strengthen the Greek
government and financial structures. They did that, but they also
mired Greece in a recession that didn’t end until 2017.
The crisis triggered the eurozone debt crisis, creating fears that
it would spread into a global financial crisis. It warned of the
fate of other heavily indebted EU members. This massive crisis was
triggered by a country whose economic output is no bigger than the
U.S. State of Connecticut.
Greece Crisis Explained
In 2009, Greece’s budget deficit exceeded 15 percent of its gross
domestic product. Fear of default widened the 10-year bond spread
and ultimately led to the collapse of Greece’s bond market. This
would shut down Greece’s ability to finance further debt
repayments. The chart below highlights in red the period when the
10-year government bond yield passed 35 percent until vast debt
restructuring forced private bondholders to accept investment
losses in exchange for less debt. EU leaders struggled to agree
on a solution. Greece wanted the EU to forgive some of the debt,
but the EU didn’t want to let Greece off scot-free.
The biggest lenders were Germany and its bankers. They championed
austerity measures. They believed the measures would improve
Greece's comparative advantage in the global marketplace. The
austerity measures required Greece to improve how it managed its
public finances. It had to modernize its financial statistics and
reporting. It lowered trade barriers, increasing exports.
Most importantly, the measures required Greece to reform its
pension system. Pension payments had absorbed 17.5 percent of GDP,
higher than in any other EU country. Public pensions were 9 percent
underfunded, compared to 3 percent for other nations. Austerity
measures required Greece to cut pensions by 1 percent of GDP. It
also required a higher pension contribution by employees and
limited early retirement.
Half of Greek households relied on pension income since one out of
five Greeks were 65 or older. Workers weren’t thrilled paying
contributions so seniors can receive higher pensions.
The austerity measures forced the government to cut spending and
increase taxes. They cost 72 billion euros or 40 percent of GDP. As
a result, the Greek economy shrank 25 percent. That reduced the tax
revenues needed to repay the debt. Unemployment rose to 25 percent,
while youth unemployment hit 50 percent. Rioting broke out in the
streets. The political system was in upheaval as voters turned to
anyone who promised a painless way out.
The results are mixed. In 2017, Greece ran a budget surplus of 0.8
percent. Its economy grew 1.4 percent, but unemployment was still
22 percent. One-third of the population lived below the poverty
line. Its 2017 debt-to-GDP ratio was 182 percent.
Timeline
In 2009, Greece announced its budget deficit would
be 12.9 percent of its GDP. That's more than four times the EU's 3
percent limit. Rating agencies Fitch, Moody's, and Standard &
Poor's lowered Greece's credit ratings. That scared off investors
and raised the cost of future loans.
In 2010, Greece announced a plan to lower its
deficit to 3 percent of GDP in two years. Greece attempted to
reassure the EU lenders it was fiscally responsible. Just four
months later, Greece instead warned it might default.
The EU and the International Monetary Fund provided 240 billion
euros in emergency funds in return for austerity measures. The
loans only gave Greece enough money to pay interest on its existing
debt and keep banks capitalized. The EU had no choice but to stand
behind its member by funding a bailout. Otherwise, it would face
the consequences of Greece either leaving the Eurozone or
defaulting.
Austerity measures required Greece to increase the VAT tax and the
corporate tax rate. It had to close tax loopholes. It created an
independent tax collector to reduce tax evasion. It reduced
incentives for early retirement. It raised worker contributions to
the pension system. At the same time, it reduced wages to lower the
cost of goods and boost exports. The measures required Greece to
privatize many state-owned businesses such as electricity
transmission. That limited the power of socialist parties and
unions.
Why was the EU so harsh? EU leaders and bond rating agencies wanted
to make sure Greece wouldn't use the new debt to pay off the old.
Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, Portugal, Ireland, and Spain had
already used austerity measures to strengthen their own economies.
Since they were paying for the bailouts, they wanted Greece to
follow their examples. Some EU countries like Slovakia and
Lithuania refused
to ask their taxpayers to dig into their pockets to let Greece
off the hook. These countries had just endured their own austerity
measures to avoid bankruptcy with no help from the EU.
In 2011, the European Financial Stability Facility
added 190 billion euros to the bailout. Despite the name change,
that money also came from EU countries.
By 2012, Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 175
percent, almost three times the EU’s limit of 60 percent.
Bondholders finally agreed to a haircut, exchanging 77 billion
euros in bonds for debt worth 75 percent less.
In 2014, Greece’s economy appeared to be
recovering, as it grew 0.7 percent. The government successfully
sold bonds and balanced the budget.
In January 2015, voters elected the Syriza party
to fight the hated austerity measures. On June 27, Greek Prime
Minister Alexis Tsipras announced a referendumon the measures. He
falsely promised that a "no" vote would give Greece more leverage
to negotiate a 30 percent debt relief with the EU. On June 30,
2015, Greece missed its scheduled 1.55 billion euros payment. Both
sides called it a delay, not an official default. Two days later,
the IMF warned that Greece needed 60 billion euros in new
aid.
It told creditors to take further write-downs on the more than 300
billion euros Greece owed them.
On July 5, Greek voters said "no" to austerity measures. The
instability created a run on the banks. Greece sustained extensive
economic damage during the two weeks surrounding the vote. Banks
closed and restricted ATM withdrawals to 60 euros per day. It
threatened the tourism industry at the height of the season, with
14 million tourists visiting the country. The European Central Bank
agreed to recapitalize Greek banks with 10 billion euros to 25
billion euros, allowing them to reopen.
Banks imposed a 420 euros weekly limit on withdrawals. That
prevented depositors from draining their accounts and worsening the
problem. It also helped reduce tax evasion. People turned to debit
and credit cards for purchases. As a result, federal revenue
increased by 1 billion euros a year.
On July 15, the Greek parliament passed the austerity measures
despite the referendum. Otherwise, it would not receive the EU loan
of 86 billion euros. The ECB agreed with the IMF to reduce Greece’s
debt. It lengthened the terms, thus reducing net present value.
Greece would still owe the same amount. It could just pay it over a
longer time period.
On July 20, Greece made its payment to the ECB, thanks to a loan of
7 billion euros from the EU emergency fund. The United Kingdom
demanded the other EU members guarantee its contribution to the
bailout.
On September 20, Tsipras and the Syriza party won a snap election.
It gave them the mandate to continue to press for debt relief in
negotiations with the EU. However, they also had to continue with
the unpopular reforms promised to the EU.
In November, Greece's four biggest banks privately raised 14.4
euros billion as required by the ECB. The funds covered bad loans
and returned the banks to full functionality. Almost half of the
loans banks had on their books were in danger of default. Bank
investors contributed this amount in exchange for the 86 billion
euros in bailout loans. The economy contracted 0.2 percent.
In March 2016,
the Bank of Greece predicted the economy would return to growth
by the summer. It only shrank 0.2 percent in 2015, but the Greek
banks were still losing money. They were reluctant to call in bad
debt, believing that their borrowers would repay once the economy
improved. That tied up funds they could have lent to new
ventures.
On June 17, the EU's European Stability Mechanism
disbursed 7.5 billion euros to Greece. It planned to use the funds
to pay interest on its debt. Greece continued with austerity
measures. It passed legislation to modernize the pension and income
tax systems. It promised to privatize more companies, and sell off
nonperforming loans.
In May 2017, Tsipras agreed to cut pensions and
broaden the tax base. In return, the EU loaned Greece another 86
billion euros. Greece used it to make more debt payments. Tsipras
hoped that his conciliatory tone would help him reduce the 293.2
billion euros in outstanding debt. But the German government
wouldn't concede much before its September presidential
elections.
In July, Greece was able to issue bonds for the first time since
2014. It planned to swap notes issued in the restructuring with the
new notes as a move to regain investors' trust.
On January 15, 2018, the Greek parliament agreed
on new austerity measures to qualify for the next round of
bailouts. On January 22, the eurozone finance ministers approved 6
billion to 7 billion euros. The new measures made it more difficult
for unions strikes to paralyze the country. They helped banks
reduce bad debt, opened up the energy and pharmacy markets, and
recalculated child benefits.
On August 20, 2018, the bailout program ended. Most of the
outstanding debt is owed to the EU emergency funding entities.
These are primarily funded by German banks.
European Financial Stability Mechanism and European Stability
Mechanism: 168 billion euros
Eurozone governments: 53 billion euros.
Private investors: 34 billion euros.
Greek government bond holders: 15 billion euros.
European Central Bank: 13 billion euros.
IMF: 12 billion euros.
Until the debt is repaid, European creditors will informally
supervise adherence to existing austerity measures. The deal means
that no new measures would be created.
Causes
How did Greece and the EU get into this mess in the first place?
The seeds were sown back in 2001 when Greece adopted the euro as
its currency. Greece had been an EU member since 1981 but couldn't
enter the eurozone. Its budget deficit had been too high for the
eurozone's Maastricht Criteria.
All went well for the first several years. Like other eurozone
countries, Greece benefited from the power of the euro. It lowered
interest rates and brought in investment capital and loans.
In 2004, Greece announced it had lied to get around the Maastricht
Criteria. The EU imposed no sanctions. Why not? There were three
reasons.
France and Germany were also spending above the limit at the time.
They'd be hypocritical to sanction Greece until they imposed their
own austerity measures first.
There was uncertainty on exactly what sanctions to apply. They
could expel Greece, but that would be disruptive and weaken the
euro.
The EU wanted to strengthen the power of the euro in international
currency markets. A strong euro would convince other EU countries,
like the United Kingdom, Denmark, and Sweden, to adopt the
euro.
As a result, Greek debt continued to rise until the crisis erupted
in 2008.