Question

In: Statistics and Probability

for week 5 football, there are 14 total games. Let there be a 50% chance of...

for week 5 football, there are 14 total games. Let there be a 50% chance of predicting any particular game’s outcome (win/lose).
Each person chooses 6 out of the 14 games.

If one person picks all 6 games correct, they win the jackpot.
if multiple people win the jackpot, it gets split up evenly.

1) what is the probability of any individual winning the jackpot?
2) what are the odds multiple people win if there are 500 people involved?
3) what are the odds of nobody winning?


Solutions

Expert Solution

Number of predictions correct out of the 6 selected games is modelled here as:

1) Probability that any individual win the jackpot is computed here as:

Therefore 0.015625 is the probability of any person to win a jackpot

b) Number of people out of 500 people who wins the jackpot could be modelled here as:

Therefore probability that multiple people win is computed here as:

This is the required probability, but the odds are computed here as:

= p / (1- p)
= 0.9966 / (1 - 0.9966)
= 293.12

Therefore 293.12 are the required odds here.

c) Probability of nobody winning is computed here as:

Therefore 0.000380 is the required probability here.

Odds are now computed as:
= 0.000380 / (1 - 0.000380)
= 0.0003801

Therefore 0.0003801 are the required odds here.


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