Question

In: Statistics and Probability

Making a forecast for the following daily closing price level which method arrses, holt and holt-winter)...

Making a forecast for the following daily closing price level which method arrses, holt and holt-winter) give reason . forecast the last closing price level?

1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
8039	8088	8083	8169	8164	8192	8209	8209	8225	8219
11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
8200	8255	8250	8260	8293	8299	8284	8299	8299

1. (20 points) i am going to use ________ method because _____

2.(20 points) Forecast value for the 19th price level is ____

According to the following table do you think that there exist a relationship between dependent variable (GNP) and independent variables (x1).

3.Write down the hypothesis (10 points)

Expert Solution

(1) I am going to use quadratic polynomial method because scatter plot showed some curve on the trend

the quadratic model is given as y=8037.35+26.1642*t-0.6659*t^2

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R	0.967423
R Square	0.935908
Adjusted R Square	0.927896
Standard Error	20.69577
Observations	19

ANOVA
	df	SS	MS	F	Significance F
Regression	2	100071.6	50035.8	116.8201	2.85E-10
Residual	16	6853.038	428.3149
Total	18	106924.6

	Coefficients	Standard Error	t Stat	P-value	Lower 95%	Upper 95%
Intercept	8037.35	15.88685	505.9122	4.58E-35	8003.671	8071.028
t	26.1642	3.657936	7.152723	2.3E-06	18.40973	33.91868
t2	-0.66593	0.177687	-3.74777	0.001756	-1.04261	-0.28925

(2) for t=19 the y^=8037.35+26.1642*19-0.6659*19*19=8294.08

(3) the correlation =r=0.9378

null hypothesis H0:=0 and

alternate hypothesis Ha:

we use t-test for its significance test and

t =r/sqrt[(1—r²)/(n—2)]=0.9378/sqrt((1-0.9378*0.9378)/(19-2))=11.13 with n-2=19-2=17 df

and critical t(0.05/2.17)=2.11 is less than calculated t=11.13, so we reject H0 and conclude that there is significant correlation between dependent variable (GNP) and independent variables (x1).

orchestra answered 2 years ago

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Making a forecast for the following daily closing price level which method arrses, holt and holt-winter)...

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