Question

Mexico tends to have much higher inflation rate than the United States and also much higher interest rate than the United States. Inflation and interest rates are much more volatile in Mexico than in industrialized countries. The value of the Mexican peso is typically more volatile than the currencies of industrialized countries from a US perspective; it has typically depreciated from one year to the next, but the degree of depreciation has varied substantially. The bid/ask spread tends to be wider for the peso than for currencies of industrialized countries.

1. Identify the most obvious economic reason for the persistent depreciation of the peso.

2. High interest rates are commonly expected to strengthen a country’s currency because they can encourage foreign investment in securities in that country, which results in the exchange of other currencies for that currency. Yet, the peso’s value has declined against the dollar over most years though Mexican interest rates are typically much higher than US interest rates. Thus, it appears that the high Mexican interest rates do not attract substantial US investment in Mexico’s securities. Why do you think US investors do not capitalize on the high interest rates in Mexico?

3. Why do think the bid/ask spread is higher for pesos than for currencies of industrialized countries? How does this affect a US firm that does substantial business in Mexico?

Answer 1

a)

The high inflation in Mexico places continual downward pressure on the value of the peso.

Easy monetary policy and high inflation are two of the leading causes of currency depreciation. When interest rates are low, hundreds of billions of pesp chase the highest yield. Expected interest rate differentials can trigger a bout of currency depreciation. Central banks will increase interest rates to combat inflation as too much inflation can threaten a nation's economic stability and cause currency depreciation.

Additionally, inflation can lead to higher input costs for exports, which then makes a nation's exports less competitive in the global markets. This will widen the trade deficit and cause the currency to depreciate.

b)

The high interest rates in Mexico result from expectations of high inflation. That is, the real interest rate in Mexico may not be any higher than the U.S. real interest rate. Given the high inflationary expectations, U.S. investors recognize the potential weakness of the peso, which could more than offset the high interest rate (when they convert the pesos back to dollars at the end of the investment period). Therefore, the high Mexican interest rates do not encourage U.S. investment in Mexican securities, and do not help to strengthen the value of the peso.

Take, for example, a high interest rate. At a high interest rate, it is very expensive to borrow money: investors will not want to invest because they have to pay a lot of interest on their loans. Savers, on the other hand, love high interest rates: they earn a lot simply by keeping their cash in the bank. High interest rates encourage savings and discourage investment.

The precise opposite is true for low interest rates. When rates are low, investors know they can borrow money to finance investments cheaply. At the same time, savers aren’t earning much by keeping their money in the bank. Low interest rates encourage investment and discourage savings.

Much of a central bank’s actions are focused on adjusting how much people save and invest.

c)

The bid-ask spread (informally referred to as the buy-sell spread) is the difference between the price a dealer will buy and sell a currency. However, the spread, or the difference, between the bid and ask price for a currency in the retail market can be large, and may also vary significantly from one dealer to the next.

The bid/ask spread is wider because the banks that provide foreign exchange services are subject to more risk when they maintain currencies such as the peso that could decline abruptly at any time. A wider bid/ask spread adversely affects the U.S. firm that does business in Mexico because it increases the transactions costs associated with conversion of dollars to pesos, or pesos to dollars

Market makers and professional traders who recognize imminent risk in the markets may also widen the difference between the best bid and the best ask they are willing to offer at a given moment. If all market makers do this on a given security, then the quoted bid-ask spread will reflect a larger than usual size. Some high-frequency traders and market makers attempt to make money by exploiting changes in the bid-ask spread.