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In: Finance

Scenario Analysis Shao Industries is considering a proposed project for its capital budget. The company estimates...

Scenario Analysis

Shao Industries is considering a proposed project for its capital budget. The company estimates the project's NPV is $12 million. This estimate assumes that the economy and market conditions will be average over the next few years. The company's CFO, however, forecasts there is only a 50% chance that the economy will be average. Recognizing this uncertainty, she has also performed the following scenario analysis:

Economic Scenario Probability of Outcome NPV
Recession 0.05 -$36 million    
Below average 0.20 -28 million    
Average 0.50 12 million    
Above average 0.20 18 million    
Boom 0.05 34 million    

What are the project's expected NPV, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation? Enter your answers for the NPV and standard deviation in millions. For example, an answer of $1.24 million should be entered as 1.24, not 1,240,000. Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to two decimal places.

E(NPV) $   million
σNPV $   million
CVNPV     

Solutions

Expert Solution

So, E(NPV) = 3.90

So, Variance of NPV = 400.99

So, σNPV = (400.99)1/2 or (400.99)0.5   

σNPV = 20.024 or 20.02 (Approximately)

σNPV = 20.02

Coefficient of variance formula = Standard Deviation / Mean

                                                       

CVNPV   =   σNPV / E(NPV)   = 20.02/3.90

CVNPV   = 5.1333 or 5.13

CVNPV   = 5.13


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