Question

What is the relationship, if any, between changes in the rate of criminal offending and changes in the rate of imprisonment in America during the last decade? What is the reason for that relationship?

Answer 1

A few articles in the field of crimonology challenged the belief that more imprisonment will lead to lesser crime rates. Post conducting extensive study in the area using data on prisoners sentenced in each country in the state of Florida between 1980 and 2000 they found no statistically significant relationships between imprisonment rates and crime, holding constant several other variables (e.g., age, race, poverty rate, unemployment rate, female headed households, etc.). A study that investigated both juvenile and adult incarceration rates and crime in the state of California found that juvenile incarceration rate declined by almost 60%. At the same time the adult imprisonment rate showed a significant increase of upto 500%. The study was a landmark one in establishing the relationship. However, another recent study in the field helped in coining the term 'backfire' wherein if the number of prisoners were increased in any part of the country, it clearly caused an increase in the crime rate. Further qualitative analysis suggested that there were certain crime enhancing effects that led to this occurence. For starters, crimes were usually occuring in gangs rather in individually. Therefore, one person's imprisonment would lead to that of the others. Furthermore, negative impact of imprisonment may lead to psychological desensitization & lack of change in the value system of people. And lastly social factors such as unemployment played a crucial role in imprisonment, which is something that could not be changed. Therefore, a clear relationship was seen between the two factors in different ways. In a few studies a positive relationship was observed whereas some pointed at a negative association between the two.