The Godess of Weather flips a coin twice to determine the weather in January. Her coin...

The Godess of Weather flips a coin twice to determine the weather in January. Her coin is unfair, with 60% to yield

a head and 40% to yield a tail. If she gets two heads, January has 80% to not snow heavily; if she gets a head and a

tail, January has 50% to snow heavily; if she gets two tails, January has 90% to snow heavily. If January and February

both snows heavily, TD Insurance company has a probability of 90% to have a loss in the first quarter. If January snows

heavily, February tends to snow heavily as well, in fact, it stops snowing heavily with only a chance of 15%. What is the

chance that January and February both snow heavily and TD Insurance have a loss in the first quarter?

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Expert Solution

orchestra answered 1 year ago

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