In: Statistics and Probability
The Godess of Weather flips a coin twice to determine the weather in January. Her coin is unfair, with 60% to yield
a head and 40% to yield a tail. If she gets two heads, January has 80% to not snow heavily; if she gets a head and a
tail, January has 50% to snow heavily; if she gets two tails, January has 90% to snow heavily. If January and February
both snows heavily, TD Insurance company has a probability of 90% to have a loss in the first quarter. If January snows
heavily, February tends to snow heavily as well, in fact, it stops snowing heavily with only a chance of 15%. What is the
chance that January and February both snow heavily and TD Insurance have a loss in the first quarter?