Question

In: Statistics and Probability

Deseasonalize the data and use an appropriate technique to find the seasonally unadjusted forecasts for the...

Deseasonalize the data and use an appropriate technique to find the seasonally unadjusted forecasts for the next year. Include your results here, showing the deseasonalized data and the seasonally unadjusted forecasts.

Period

Year

Quarter

Sales

1

1

1

40

2

1

2

60

3

1

3

65

4

1

4

80

5

2

1

44

6

2

2

70

7

2

3

72

8

2

4

91

9

3

1

46

10

3

2

77

11

3

3

74

12

3

4

100

13

4

1

50

14

4

2

80

15

4

3

83

16

4

4

109

Solutions

Expert Solution

The calculations are:

Centered
Moving Ratio to Seasonal Sales
t Year Quarter Sales Average CMA Indexes Deseasonalized
1 1 1 40 0.653 61.2
2 1 2 60 1.031 58.2
3 1 3 65 61.750 1.053 1.026 63.3
4 1 4 80 63.500 1.260 1.290 62.0
5 2 1 44 65.625 0.670 0.653 67.4
6 2 2 70 67.875 1.031 1.031 67.9
7 2 3 72 69.500 1.036 1.026 70.2
8 2 4 91 70.625 1.288 1.290 70.5
9 3 1 46 71.750 0.641 0.653 70.4
10 3 2 77 73.125 1.053 1.031 74.7
11 3 3 74 74.750 0.990 1.026 72.1
12 3 4 100 75.625 1.322 1.290 77.5
13 4 1 50 77.125 0.648 0.653 76.5
14 4 2 80 79.375 1.008 1.031 77.6
15 4 3 83 1.026 80.9
16 4 4 109 1.290 84.5

The forecasts are:

Forecast
50.54341
79.74376
79.39294
99.81989


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