In: Economics
In an excel spreadsheet, calculate the real interest rate over the past 24 months (using monthly data) for the 30 year Treasury bond rate as the nominal interest rate and assuming that expected inflation was equal to actual inflation (based on the change in CPI). Make sure to include the Fisher Equation.
The Fisher Effect states that the real interest rate equals the nominal interest rate minus the expected inflation rate. Therefore, real interest rates fall as inflation increases, unless nominal rates increase at the same rate as inflation.
Sno | month | 30 year treasury bind rate (nominal interest rate) | percentage change in CPI (inflation ) | real interest rate |
1 | June,2018 | 2.983 | 2.9 | 0.083 |
2 | July,2018 | 3.083 | 2.9 | 0.183 |
3 | August,2018 | 3.01 | 2.7 | 0.31 |
4 | September,2018 | 3.197 | 2.5 | 0.697 |
5 | October,2018 | 3.402 | 2.3 | 1.102 |
6 | November,2018 | 3.311 | 2.2 | 1.111 |
7 | December,2018 | 3.02 | 1.9 | 1.12 |
8 | January,2019 | 3.005 | 1.6 | 1.405 |
9 | February,2019 | 3.083 | 1.5 | 1.583 |
10 | March,2019 | 2.822 | 1.9 | 0.922 |
11 | April,2019 | 2.94 | 2 | 0.94 |
12 | May,2019 | 2.583 | 1.8 | 0.783 |
13 | June,2019 | 2.528 | 1.6 | 0.928 |
14 | July,2019 | 2.527 | 1.8 | 0.727 |
15 | August,2019 | 1.97 | 1.7 | 0.27 |
16 | September,2019 | 2.121 | 1.7 | 0.421 |
17 | October,2019 | 2.176 | 1.8 | 0.376 |
18 | November,2019 | 2.202 | 2.1 | 0.102 |
19 | December,2019 | 2.389 | 2.3 | 0.089 |
20 | January,2020 | 2.015 | 2.5 | -0.485 |
21 | February,2020 | 1.671 | 2.3 | -0.629 |
22 | March,2020 | 1.351 | 1.5 | -0.149 |
23 | April,2020 | 1.266 | 0.3 | 0.966 |
24 | May,2020 | 1.407 | 0.1 | 1.307 |
25 | June,2020 | 1.409 | 0.6 | 0.809 |