Question

1. What were the public views of lenders about the subprime mortgages they were offering? What were their private beliefs about those loans?

2. Explain why risky lending lead to a credit crisis. What characterized many of the mortgage loans made to borrowers during the housing bubble.

3. Why did government funds need to be funneled to banks as the crisis unfolded and more banks failed?

4. Explain the circumstances that led to the big banks having to be “bailed out”. Why did Federal Reserve chair Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Paulson argue that it was urgent that government allocate $700 B to the biggest banks in fall 2008?

5. How did financial deregulation factor into the crisis? Explain

Answer 1

1.

Protests opposing the bailout occurred in over 100 cities across the United States in September 2008. The largest gathering has been in New York City, where more than 1,000 protesters gathered near the New York Stock Exchange along with labor union members organized by New York Central Labor Council. Other grassroots groups have planned rallies to protest against the bailout, while outraged citizens continue to express their opposition online through blogs and dedicated websites.

• In a survey conducted September 19–22 by the Pew Research Center, by a margin of 57 percent to 30 percent, Americans supported the bailout when asked "As you may know, the government is potentially investing billions to try and keep financial institutions and markets secure. Do you think this is the right thing or the wrong thing for the government to be doing?"
• In a survey conducted September 19–22 by Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times, by a margin of 55 percent to 31 percent, Americans opposed the bailout when asked whether "the government should use taxpayers' dollars to rescue ailing private financial firms whose collapse could have adverse effects on the economy and market, or is it not the government's responsibility to bail out private companies with taxpayers' dollars?".
• In a survey conducted September 24 by USA Today/Gallup, when asked "As you may know, the Bush administration has proposed a plan that would allow the Treasury Department to buy and re-sell up to $700 billion of distressed assets from financial companies. What would you like to see Congress do?", 56 percent of respondents wanted Congress to pass a plan different from the original Paulson proposal, 22 percent supported the Paulson proposal in its initial form, and 11 percent wanted Congress to take no action.
• Senator Sherrod Brown said he had been getting 2,000 e-mail messages and telephone calls a day, roughly 95 percent opposed.
• As of Thursday, September 25, Senator Dianne Feinstein's (D-Calif.) offices had received a total of 39,180 e-mails, calls and letters on the bailout, with the overwhelming majority of constituents against it.

2.

The immediate cause or trigger of the crisis was the bursting of the United States housing bubble which peaked in approximately 2005–2006. High default rates on "subprime" and adjustable rate mortgages (ARM), began to increase quickly thereafter. Lenders began originating large numbers of high risk mortgages from around 2004 to 2007, and loans from those vintage years exhibited higher default rates than loans made either before or after. An increase in loan incentives such as easy initial terms and a long-term trend of rising housing prices had encouraged borrowers to assume difficult mortgages in the belief they would be able to quickly refinance at more favorable terms. Additionally, the increased market power of originators of subprime mortgages and the declining role of Government Sponsored Enterprises as gatekeepers increased the number of subprime mortgages provided to consumers who would have otherwise qualified for conforming loans. The worst performing loans were securitized by private investment banks, who generally lacked the GSE's market power and influence over mortgage originators. Once interest rates began to rise and housing prices started to drop moderately in 2006–2007 in many parts of the U.S., refinancing became more difficult. Defaults and foreclosure activity increased dramatically as easy initial terms expired, home prices failed to go up as anticipated, and ARM interest rates reset higher. Falling prices also resulted in 23% of U.S. homes worth less than the mortgage loan by September 2010, providing a financial incentive for borrowers to enter foreclosure. The ongoing foreclosure epidemic, of which subprime loans are one part, that began in late 2006 in the U.S. continues to be a key factor in the global economic crisis, because it drains wealth from consumers and erodes the financial strength of banking institutions. In the years leading up to the crisis, significant amounts of foreign money flowed into the U.S. from fast-growing economies in Asia and oil-producing countries. This inflow of funds combined with low U.S. interest rates from 2002–2004 contributed to easy credit conditions, which fueled both housing and credit bubbles. Loans of various types (e.g., mortgage, credit card, and auto) were easy to obtain and consumers assumed an unprecedented debt load. As part of the housing and credit booms, the amount of financial agreements called mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which derive their value from mortgage payments and housing prices, greatly increased. Such financial innovation enabled institutions and investors around the world to invest in the U.S. housing market. As housing prices declined, major global financial institutions that had borrowed and invested heavily in MBS reported significant losses. Defaults and losses on other loan types also increased significantly as the crisis expanded from the housing market to other parts of the economy. Total losses are estimated in the trillions of U.S. dollars globally. While the housing and credit bubbles were growing, a series of factors caused the financial system to become increasingly fragile.

3.

Policymakers did not recognize the increasingly important role played by financial institutions such as investment banks and hedge funds, also known as the shadow banking system. Shadow banks were able to mask their leverage levels from investors and regulators through the use of complex, off-balance sheet derivatives and securitizations. These instruments also made it virtually impossible to reorganize financial institutions in bankruptcy, and contributed to the need for government bailouts. Some experts believe these institutions had become as important as commercial (depository) banks in providing credit to the U.S. economy, but they were not subject to the same regulations. These institutions, as well as certain regulated banks, had also assumed significant debt burdens while providing the loans described above and did not have a financial cushion sufficient to absorb large loan defaults or MBS losses. These losses impacted the ability of financial institutions to lend, slowing economic activity. Concerns regarding the stability of key financial institutions drove central banks to take action to provide funds to encourage lending and to restore faith in the commercial paper markets, which are integral to funding business operations. Governments also bailed out key financial institutions, assuming significant additional financial commitments. The risks to the broader economy created by the housing market downturn and subsequent financial market crisis were primary factors in several decisions by central banks around the world to cut interest rates and governments to implement economic stimulus packages. Effects on global stock markets due to the crisis have been dramatic. Between 1 January and 11 October 2008, owners of stocks in U.S. corporations had suffered about $8 trillion in losses, as their holdings declined in value from $20 trillion to $12 trillion. Losses in other countries have averaged about 40%. Losses in the stock markets and housing value declines place further downward pressure on consumer spending, a key economic engine. Leaders of the larger developed and emerging nations met in November 2008 and March 2009 to formulate strategies for addressing the crisis. A variety of solutions have been proposed by government officials, central bankers, economists, and business executives.

4.

Governments may intervene because of the belief that an institution is "too big to fail" or "too interconnected to fail", meaning that allowing them to enter bankruptcy would create or increase systemic risk, meaning disruptions to the credit markets and to the real economy.

Bank failures are widely believed to have led to the Great Depression, and since WWII, nearly every government – including the U.S. in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s (decade) – has chosen to bail out its financial sector in times of crisis. Whatever the negative consequences of bailouts, the consequences of not bailing out the financial system – economic collapse, protracted GDP contraction, and high unemployment – may be even worse.

For these reasons, even political leaders who are theoretically ideologically opposed to bailouts have generally supported them in times of crisis. In a dramatic meeting on September 18, 2008, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke met with key legislators to propose a $700 billion emergency bailout of the banking system. Bernanke reportedly told them: "If we don't do this, we may not have an economy on Monday."^[74] The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act, also called the Troubled Asset Relief Program(TARP), was signed into law on October 3, 2008.

Ben Bernanke also described his rationale for the AIG bailout as a "difficult but necessary step to protect our economy and stabilize our financial system." AIG had $952 billion in liabilities according to its 2007 annual report; its bankruptcy would have made the payment of these liabilities uncertain. Banks, municipalities, and insurers could have suffered significant financial losses, with unpredictable and potentially significant consequences. In the context of the dramatic business failures and takeovers of September 2008, he was unwilling to allow another large bankruptcy such as Lehman Brothers, which had caused a run on money-market funds and caused a crisis of confidence that brought interbank lending to a standstill.

Arguments against bailouts:

• Signals lower business standards for giant companies by incentivizing risk
• Creates moral hazard through the assurance of safety nets
• Instills a corporatist style of government in which businesses use the state's power to forcibly extract money from taxpayers.
• Promotes centralized bureaucracy by allowing government powers to choose the terms of the bailout
• Instills a socialistic style of government in which government creates and maintains control over businesses.

On November 24, 2008, Republican Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX) wrote, "In bailing out failing companies, they are confiscating money from productive members of the economy and giving it to failing ones. By sustaining companies with obsolete or unsustainable business models, the government prevents their resources from being liquidated and made available to other companies that can put them to better, more productive use. An essential element of a healthy free market is that both success and failure must be permitted to happen when they are earned. But instead of a bailout, the rewards are reversed – the proceeds from successful entities are given to failing ones. How this is supposed to be good for our economy is beyond me. ... It won’t work. It can’t work ... It is obvious to most Americans that we need to reject corporate cronyism, and allow the natural regulations and incentives of the free market to pick the winners and losers in our economy, not the whims of bureaucrats and politicians."

Nicole Gelinas, a writer affiliated with the Manhattan Institute think tank, wrote in March 2009: "In place of a wrenching but consistent and well-tested process [bankruptcy] of winding down a failed company, what have we chosen? A world of investors who can never be sure, in the future, that if they put their money into a company that fails, they can depend on a reliable process to recoup some of their funds. Instead, they may find themselves at the mercy of a government veering from whim to whim as it reads the mood of a volatile public ... In saving the remnants of failed companies from free-market failures, Washington may be sacrificing the public’s confidence that the government can ensure that free markets are reasonably fair and impartial. One year into an era of exhausting and arbitrary bailouts, it’s not clear that our policy of destroying the system in order to save it is going to work."^[79]

Bailouts can be costly for taxpayers. In 2002, World Bank reported that country bailouts cost an average of 13% of GDP. Based on U.S. GDP of $14 trillion in 2008, this would be approximately $1.8 trillion.

5.

Government over-regulation, failed regulation and deregulation have all been claimed as causes of the crisis. In testimony before Congress, both the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Alan Greenspan claimed failure in allowing the self-regulation of investment banks. In 1982, Congress passed the Alternative Mortgage Transactions Parity Act (AMTPA), which allowed non-federally chartered housing creditors to write adjustable-rate mortgages. Among the new mortgage loan types created and gaining in popularity in the early 1980s were adjustable-rate, option adjustable-rate, balloon-payment, and interest-only mortgages. These new loan types are credited with replacing the long-standing practice of banks making conventional fixed-rate, amortizing mortgages. Among the criticisms of banking industry deregulation that contributed to the savings and loan crisis was that Congress failed to enact regulations that would have prevented exploitations by these loan types. Subsequent widespread abuses of predatory lending occurred with the use of adjustable-rate mortgages. Approximately 90% of subprime mortgages issued in 2006 were adjustable-rate mortgages.