In: Statistics and Probability
What are the model assumptions of the ARIMA (2,2,3) model?
ARIMA (Autoregressive integrated moving
average):-
ARIMA modeling (sometimes called Box-Jenkins modeling), is an
approach to modeling ARIMA processes—mathematical models used for
forecasting. The approach uses previous time series data plus an
error to forecast future values. More specifically, it combines a
general autoregressive model AR(p) and general moving average model
MA(q):
AR(p)— uses previous values of the dependent variable to make
predictions.
MA(q)—uses the series mean and previous errors to make
predictions.
ARIMA models are, in theory, the most general class of models for
forecasting a time series which can be made to be “stationary” by
differencing , perhaps in conjunction with nonlinear
transformations such as logging or deflating .
A nonseasonal ARIMA model is classified as an "ARIMA(p,d,q)"
model, where,
p is the number of autoregressive terms,
d is the number of nonseasonal differences needed for stationarity,
and
q is the number of lagged forecast errors in the prediction
equation.
In our model ARIMA(2,2,3) , p=2,d=2 and q=3.
The forecasting equation is constructed as follows. First, let y
denote the dth difference of Y, which means, in our model
d=2: yt = (Yt - Yt-1) - (Yt-1 - Yt-2) = Yt - 2Yt-1 + Yt-2
ASSUMPTIONS :-
ARIMA models work on the assumption of stationarity (i.e. they must
have a constant variance and mean). If your model is
non-stationary, you’ll need to transform it before you can There
are no known/suspected predictor variables
There are no level shifts.
There are no deterministic time trends of the form
1,2,3,...,t
There are no seasonal dummies
The model parameters are constant over time
The error process is homoscedastic .