Question

Go to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA.gov) website and look at quarterly data from the last five years of the National Accounts. You will need to allow some time to explore the site to find the data required for this post. In addition to the information required for this post, what did you find on the site that you found interesting. The BEA is now open, however the opening page notes the data which has not yet been updated. This will not affect your research.

What part of the business cycle is the U.S. economy currently in? Why? What factors lead you to this conclusion - please include an analysis of the 4 categories of the expenditures side of the GDP equation. What are the dates for single quarter downturns in GDP over the past 5 years? Why did these downturns not last long enough to be called a recession?

https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey

Answer 1

Summary:

Here form the website quarterly data from the last 5 years of the National Accounts and new data is gathered and given below.

GDP Report
The 4th quarter showed a 2.6% increase in real GDP, lower than the 4- 5% rise for the 2nd and 3rd quarter (2014). This was below the estimates and was taken by the markets as a negative overall. Personal consumption expenditures grew at 4.3%, making it the biggest contributor to growth. Exports as well as private nonresidential fixed investment also contributed to the growth. Government spending saw a big decline.

Although the growth is below the prior quarters, the economy did increase at a rate of 2.5% over the prior year. This is a respectable recovery period.

Price trends

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics current release showed the CPI decreasing at the end of 2014 increasing the issue of downward price pressure.Not all of it can be however attributed to falling energy prices.Since the economy is recovering well, the pressure on Federal Reserve to normalize the monetary policy and start raising interest rates should come about  due to the concerns about inflation

Now let us observe the relative price of the currencies. The real effective exchange rates for the Euro, Yen, Pound and Dollar show that the dollar and pound have appreciated sharply and the Yen has depreciated sharply.

Labor market

The labor market increased 252,000 jobs in December . In addition, there were big positive revisions to the last two months: 243k to 261k in October and 321k to 353k in November.

Consumer credit

This is one more sign of recovery .The Great Recession was different in many respects, yet a feature that stands out was the household debt and borrowing. The credit boom (late 1990s) had led many households to raise their reliance on debt for financing consumption and investment. The ratio of debt-to-income increased fro 0.6 in the 1980s to 1.2 in 2007. During the recession, both debt and borrowing dropped at rates never seen earlier as the unemployment rate had doubled. Debt-to-income now stands at 0.95

From the website the recent dates for the current year are: