Considering the following time series data: Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9...

Considering the following time series data: Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Sales 8 11 14 19 16 10 8 12 14 16 Compute the naïve forecast and the three-week Moving Average and evaluate the forecast accuracy considering the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for each of these two predictions. Compare both of them and determine which is the best model

Expert Solution

orchestra answered 2 years ago

Consider the following time series data: Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Value...

Consider the following time series data: Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Value 24 13 21 12 20 23 15 25 Compute MSE using the most recent value as the forecast for the next period. What is the forecast for month 9? Compute MSE using the average of all the data available as the forecast for the next period. What is the forecast for month 9? Which method appears to provide the better forecast?

Question 1. Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value...

Question 1. Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 118 113 116 111 117 114 Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Use a =0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with...

Problem 6-01 (Algorithmic) Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6...

Problem 6-01 (Algorithmic) Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 12 16 10 19 13 Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy. Mean absolute error. If required, round your answer to one decimal place. Mean squared error. If required, round your answer to one decimal place. Mean absolute percentage error. If required, round your intermediate calculations and final...

x 2 8 5 9 4 3 9 6 7 8 y 3 6 5 7...

x 2 8 5 9 4 3 9 6 7 8 y 3 6 5 7 9 7 4 6 9 9 -5.48x + 0.17 5.48x + 0.17 -0.17x + 5.48 0.17x + 5.48

Consider the following time series: Period 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 Demand 15,...

Consider the following time series: Period 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 Demand 15, 17, 14, 7, 10, 12, 7, 5 A. using a trend projection, forecast the demand for period 9 b. calculate the MAD for this forecast SHOW ALL WORK! DO NOT USE EXCEL OR PHSTAT!

Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 19 12...

Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 19 12 15 11 18 13 a. Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for the time series. Week Time Series Value Forecast 1 19 2 12 3 15 4 11 5 18 6 13 Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) MSE = b. Use a smoothing constant of α = 0.4 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts. Week Time...

Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 13...

Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 13 16 11 17 14 a. Use a smoothing constant of a = 0.4 to compute the MSE (to 2 decimals). (___) 2.Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 19 13 17 12 17 15 b. Develop the three-week moving average forecasts for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7 (to 2 decimals if...

Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 12...

Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 12 16 10 17 15 (a) Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? The data appear to follow a horizontal pattern. (b) Develop the three-week moving average forecasts for this time series. (Round your answers to two decimal places.) Week Time Series Value Forecast 1 18 2 12 3 16 4 10 15.33 5 17 12.67 6 15 14.33...

Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 20 13...

Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 20 13 15 10 18 14 Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy. (a) Mean absolute error If required, round your answer to one decimal place. (b) Mean squared error If required, round your answer to one decimal place. (c) Mean absolute percentage error If required, round your intermediate calculations and final...

onsider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 20 12...

onsider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 20 12 15 10 18 15 Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy. (a) Mean absolute error If required, round your answer to one decimal place. (b) Mean squared error If required, round your answer to one decimal place. (c) Mean absolute percentage error If required, round your intermediate calculations and final...

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