In: Statistics and Probability
When returns from a project can be assumed to be normally
distributed, such as those shown in Figure 13-6 (represented by a
symmetrical, bell-shaped curve), the areas under the curve can be
determined from statistical tables based on standard deviations.
For example, 68.26 percent of the distribution will fall within one
standard deviation of the expected value ( D¯¯¯D¯ ± 1σ). Similarly,
95.44 percent will fall within two standard deviations (
D¯¯¯D¯ ± 2σ), and so on. An abbreviated table of areas
under the normal curve is shown next.
Number of σ's From Expected Value |
+ or – | + and – | ||||
0.50 | 0.1915 | 0.3830 | ||||
1.00 | 0.3413 | 0.6826 | ||||
1.50 | 0.4332 | 0.8664 | ||||
2.00 | 0.4772 | 0.9544 | ||||
3.46 | 0.4997 | 0.9994 | ||||
Assume Project A has an expected value of $20,000 and a standard
deviation (σ) of $4,000.
a. What is the probability that the outcome will
be between $18,000 and $22,000? (Round your answer to 4
decimal places.)
b. What is the probability that the outcome will
be between $16,000 and $24,000? (Round your answer to 4
decimal places.)
c. What is the probability that the outcome will
be at least $12,000? (Round your answer to 4 decimal
places.)
d. What is the probability that the outcome will
be less than $33,830? (Round your answer to 4 decimal
places.)
e. What is the probability that the outcome will
be less than $18,000 or greater than $22,000? (Round your
answer to 4 decimal places.)
0.50 | 0.1915 | 0.3830 | ||||
1.00 | 0.3413 | 0.6826 | ||||
1.50 | 0.4332 | 0.8664 | ||||
2.00 | 0.4772 | 0.9544 | ||||
3.46 | 0.4997 | 0.9994 | ||||
Let x be the returns from a project .
Given : mean ( µ ) = $20,000 and standard deviation (σ) = $4,000
a. What is the probability that the outcome will
be between $18,000 and $22,000? (Round your answer to 4
decimal places.)
P( $18,000 ≤x ≤ $22,000) =
=
= P( -0.5 ≤ z ≤ 0.5 )
= 0.3830 --- ( from the abbreviated table of areas under the normal curve )
b. What is the probability that the outcome will be between $16,000 and $24,000? (Round your answer to 4 decimal places.)
P( $16,000 ≤x ≤ $24,000) =
=
= P( -1 ≤ z ≤ 1 )
= 0.6826 --- ( from the abbreviated table of areas under the normal curve )
c. What is the probability that the outcome
will be at least $12,000? (Round your answer to 4 decimal
places.)
P( x ≥ $12000 )
=
=P( z ≥ -2 )
= 0.4772 + 0.5000
= 0.9772
d. What is the probability that the outcome will
be less than $33,830? (Round your answer to 4 decimal
places.)
P( x < $33830 )
=
= P( z ≤ 3.46 )
= 0.5000 + 0.4997
= 0.9997
e. What is the probability that the outcome will be less than $18,000 or greater than $22,000? (Round your answer to 4 decimal places.)
P( x < $18000 ) + P( x > $22000)
=1 - P( $18,000 ≤x ≤ $22,000)
= 1 - 0.3830
= 0.6170