In: Statistics and Probability
Orchard Relief is a product that is designed to improve sleep at night. The company, Eli Orchard, is guessing that sales of the product is somewhat related to sleeping patterns of customers over the days of the week. Before mass production of the product, Eli Orchid has market-tested Orchid Relief in only Orange County over the past 8 weeks. The weekly demand is recorded. Eli Orchid is now trying to use the sales pattern over the past 8 weeks to predict sales in US for the upcoming few weeks, especially for days 57 and 60. An accurate forecast would be helpful in arrangements for the company’s production processes and design of price promotions over each week.
What is the MAD using the exponential smoothing constant of 0.7?
Number of Days | Daily Demand |
1 | 297 |
2 | 293 |
3 | 327 |
4 | 315 |
5 | 348 |
6 | 447 |
7 | 431 |
8 | 283 |
9 | 326 |
10 | 317 |
11 | 345 |
12 | 355 |
13 | 428 |
14 | 454 |
15 | 305 |
16 | 310 |
17 | 350 |
18 | 328 |
19 | 366 |
20 | 460 |
21 | 427 |
22 | 291 |
23 | 325 |
24 | 354 |
25 | 322 |
26 | 405 |
27 | 442 |
28 | 450 |
29 | 318 |
30 | 298 |
31 | 355 |
32 | 355 |
33 | 374 |
34 | 447 |
35 | 463 |
36 | 291 |
37 | 319 |
38 | 333 |
39 | 339 |
40 | 416 |
41 | 475 |
42 | 459 |
43 | 319 |
44 | 326 |
45 | 356 |
46 | 340 |
47 | 395 |
48 | 465 |
49 | 453 |
50 | 307 |
51 | 324 |
52 | 350 |
53 | 348 |
54 | 384 |
55 | 474 |
56 | 485 |