In: Statistics and Probability
Urn 1 contains 10 red balls, 5 green balls and 12 orange. Inside Urn 2 there are 7 red, 13 green, and 20 orange balls. Flip a coin to choose the urn, so there is a 55% chance to heads, you pick urn 1. If you pick tails, you pick urn 2. Then pick a ball from one of the urns after you flip. If you choose an orange ball, pick again but do this only once.
a) Draw a tree of the situation
b) What is the probability of picking a red ball
c) What is the probability of picking an orange ball
d) Given we picked a red ball, what is the probability we picked from urn 1