Question

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A stock price is currently $20. It is known that in three months it will go...

A stock price is currently $20. It is known that in three months it will go up to 22 or down to 18. The risk-free interest rate is 6% per annum with continuous compounding. What is p (the

risk-neutral probability of an up movement)

Solutions

Expert Solution

Risk free rate = e^rt
=2.7183^(0.06*3/12)
=2.7183^0.015
=1.015113
p = Probability
r= risk free rate 1.015113
d = =down price/current price 0.900
u = =up price / current price 1.100
p= r-d/u-d
=1.0151-0.9/1.1-0.9
=0.5756   or 0.58

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