In: Finance
A stock price is currently $20. It is known that in three months it will go up to 22 or down to 18. The risk-free interest rate is 6% per annum with continuous compounding. What is p (the
risk-neutral probability of an up movement)
Risk free rate = e^rt | |||
=2.7183^(0.06*3/12) | |||
=2.7183^0.015 | |||
=1.015113 | |||
p = | Probability | ||
r= | risk free rate | 1.015113 | |
d = | =down price/current price | 0.900 | |
u = | =up price / current price | 1.100 | |
p= r-d/u-d | |||
=1.0151-0.9/1.1-0.9 | |||
=0.5756 or 0.58 |