Question

I am starting an Economics assignment, and the questions I can choose from are as follows. I am planning on doing Q1 however it is very broad, can somebody help me where to start? Thanks

1. Write a report on trade, employment and wages in Vietnam.
2. Write a report on disinflation, fiscal sustainability and economics growth in Hungary or Poland
3. Write a report on hyperinflation, trade deficit and exchange rate in Zimbabwe
4. Write a report on aggregate economic shocks, transfer programs and macroeconomic performance in Australia since 2000.
5. Write a report on government debt and macroeconomic implications in India.

Answer 1

1. Report on trade, employment and wages in Vietnam :

Vietnam gained enoromous success with high growth and rapid shift in economic structure . The thesis begins with an interpretative survey of the theoretical and empirical literature on manufacturing employment and wages in a labour-abundant economy , in order to provide the analytical context for the Vietnam case study . The findings suggest that the reforms have resulted in a significant shift in the pattern of labour absorption in the economy from the agriculture to manufacturing over the past three decades .

The U.S. goods trade deficit with Vietnam was $39.5 billion in 2018 . Trade in services with Vietnam (exports and imports) totaled an estimated $3.7 billion in 2018 . Services exports were $2.5 billion ; services imports were $1.3 billion . The U.S. services trade surplus with Vietnam was $1.2 billion in 2018 .

The number of employed laborers in Vietnam increased from 53.3 million in 2016 to 53.7 million in 2017. Employed laborers in agriculture , forestry , fishery decreased from 22.3 million in 2016 to 21.6 million in 2017, while industry and construction saw an increase from 13.2 million in 2016 to 13.8 million in 2017. Services also witnessed a growth from 17.8 million in 2016 to 18.3 million in 2017.

The average monthly salary of a worker in Vietnam is about $148 per month ; those in high paying jobs bring home around $500 per month. Visas : The most common visa for Vietnam is a single-entry three-month visa.

2. Report on disinflation, fiscal sustainability and economics growth in Hungary or Poland :

From a theoretical viewpoint inflation targeting still does provides an extra gain : it involves economic actors in the game between the monetary authority and the public, channels expectations and therewith makes them more aware of the interaction between economic policy and their everyday economic transactions .

Disinflation is a decrease in the rate of inflation – a slowdown in the rate of increase of the general price level of goods and services in a nation's gross domestic product over time . It is the opposite of reflation . Disinflation occurs when the increase in the “consumer price level” slows down from the previous period when the prices were rising . Inflation in Central and East European countries varied considerably over the transition phase, and econometric relationships between prices, money, wages and exchange rates are said to have been unstable during this period . Inflation in Hungary came with the reforms , increasing from single digits to double digits in the late 1980s . Unlike in Poland and many other countries in transition , inflation never exploded . It peaked at 34 percent in 1991 and , since then , has fluctuated around 20 percent.

The approach is consistent with so called backward looking approach for fiscal dominance testing proposed by Bohn (1998) . The results suggest that in the Czech Republic and Poland fiscal dominance prevailed in the analyzed period , while in Hungary – monetary dominance . The result for Hungary may be caused , however , by a one-time reduction in debt resulting from changes in pension system . Debt sustainability has become central after the sovereign debt crisis in Europe . Since then , there has been observed an increased interest of international bodies such as the European Commission or the International Monetary Fund in developing policy frameworks and recommendations aiming at reducing high debt ratios and/or keeping the budget deficit under control . For instance , Redzepagic and Llorca (2007) used fiscal reaction function and Ordinary Least Squares to identify the determinants of fiscal sustainability in seven countries of Central and Eastern Europe over 1999-2006 . They found a positive reaction of the primary balance to shocks on public debt in several CEECs , except Poland and Czech Republic . In addition , they indicated a relevant influence of the political and partisan cycle on fiscal sustainability only in Poland , but not in the rest of the countries examined . Stoian and Campeanu (2010) analyzed fiscal sustainability for ten Central and Eastern European countries estimating individual fiscal reaction functions for the period 2000-2008 . The main findings of this study suggest that governments of Bulgaria , Czech Republic , Estonia , Hungary and Lithuania were able to increase the primary surplus as response to shocks on public debt whilst for the cases of Latvia , Poland , Romania and Slovakia the response was opposite indicating difficulties in achieving fiscal sustainability .

According to Eurostat , Poland and Hungary report among the EU’s highest GDP growth rates in the first quarter 2019 .The EU’s statistical office recently released its GDP and employment growth figures for the first quarter of the year . It shows that Hungary and Poland (GDP growth rates of +1.5% compared to the previous quarter) were tied at the second place of the fastest-growing economies in the EU , only topped by Croatia (+1.8%), which leads the bloc . Compared to the same period last year, Hungary and Poland’s GDP grew by 5.3% and 4.7% , respectively , making them the first and fifth fastest-growing economies year-on-year . The other highest annual GDP growth rates were observed in Romania (+5%), Malta (+4.9%) and Bulgaria (+4.8%) , according to Eurostat .

3. Report on hyperinflation , trade deficit and exchange rate in Zimbabwe :

Hyperinflation in Zimbawe was a period on a time of money instability in Zimbawe that using Cagan's defination of hyperinflation , began in February 2007 . In 2008 , Zimbabwe had the second highest incidence of hyperinflation on record . The estimated inflation rate for Nov 2008 was 79,600,000,000% . The hyper-inflation was caused by printing money in response to a series of economic shocks . The highest hyperinflation rate was Hungary 1946 with a daily inflation of 195% .

Causes of hyperinflation in Zimbawe :

• The economy experienced a sharp full in output ( both agricultural and manufacturing ) and this caused a collapse in bank lending .
• With the economy in decline government debt increased . To finance the higher debt , the Government responded by printing more money , which caused more inflation etc.
• The U.S. goods trade deficit with Zimbabwe was $41 million in 2018, a 490.4% increase ($34 million) over 2017.
• Zimbabwe is currently our 169th largest goods trading partner with $109 million in total (two way) goods trade during 2018. Goods exports totaled $34 million; goods imports totaled $75 million. The U.S. goods trade deficit with Zimbabwe was $41 million in 2018.

Now a days the exchange rate in Zimbabwe is 81.3458% approximately .

4. Report on aggregate economic shocks, transfer programs and macroeconomic performance in Australia since 2000 :

The economic growth of a country depends upon the performance of macroeconomic indicators like real GDP, interest rate etc...

The Austrelian economy entered the 2000S in a healthy state . Whlie the 1990 had it's ups and downs , the paper of the Bank's conference in 2000 provided a generally positive report on the economy.The size of the current account deficit also continued to receive attention at the 2000 Conference, although most commentators had generally become more sanguine about the deficit over time .

When you are studying at an Australian university, you can certainly consider the transfer options to another university . This possibility of transfer is available for both domestic and international students . However , this transfer process comes with its own pros and cons. Thus, it is important that a student should be certain about his decision of changing the university .

A decade ago, in July 1990, the Australian economy had just entered a severe recession. Real GDP slowed in the first half of 1990, and then began to fall in the second half of the year.The recovery from the recession began some time in the September quarter of 1991. It was initially slow and tentative, with the result that the unemployment rate, instead of falling rapidly as had occurred in the early phase of recovery in 1983, in fact continued to rise until late 1992.Yet as of mid 2000, the economy has recorded nine years of continual growth, averaging about 4 per cent per year, the longest expansion in the Australian economy since the 1960s, and a performance similar in many respects to that in the United States.

5. Report on government debt and macroeconomic implications in India :

General government debt -- which is the combined liabilities of the Centre and states -- is likely to hit a record 91 per cent of GDP this fiscal, a brokerage report said on Wednesday. This will be the highest in record since data began to be maintained in 1980. General government debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 75 per cent in FY20, as per the report by economists of Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

India has a high population density and this makes it more vulnerable. India’s population density is thrice that of China along with a fragile state of health infrastructure. India may not be able to cope with the medical overload if the pandemic spins out of control. The lockdown had brought the Indian economy to a standstill and now we are observing its after-effects. The immediate impact of the pandemic was on the service sector viz. travel, tourism and hospitality. Slowly it affected the manufacturing, mining, agriculture, public administration, construction etc. This impact reduces the employment, income, consumption, investment as these are dependent on each other. Due to the measures adopted to prevent the spread of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19), especially social distancing and lockdown, non-essential expenditures are being postponed. This is causing aggregate demand to collapse across the globe.

Now a days the Covid-19 hampers badly the macroeconomic implications in India.