In: Economics
InIn mid-1970s, I applied to Delhi School of Economics for a
Master’s programme. An interview was part of the admission process
and I was asked a question with a concocted scenario. As Prime
Minister, Indira Gandhi goes to USA and forgets to take any money
with her. However, she is so well known that she manages to pay for
her board and lodging through IOUs issued to the bearer. Once back
in India, she was supposed to honour these IOUs. But, busy with
hurly burly of governing India, she forgot. Who paid for her stay
in USA?
Economists love the expression ‘ceteris paribus’, ‘other things
remaining unchanged’. Ceteris paribus, this is classic quantity
theory of money.
Money supply in USA increased and every US citizen paid for
Indira Gandhi’s stay through higher prices. Someone sent me a
concocted graph, showing a dramatic increase in economists in India
after November 8. The Indira Gandhi episode in reverse – November 8
means reduction in Gross Domestic Produce (GDP), prices and
interest rates.
Let me muddy waters, ignoring temporary dislocation and focusing on
what happens thereafter: Real estate and land prices will crash.
Bad for GDP. GDP is value of goods and services produced in a year.
I purchase a plot of land from you. Does that enter GDP
calculations? Of course not, no value addition has occurred. For
GDP calculation purposes, that’s a transfer payment.
A mock-graph of Economists in India that’s doing Social Media
rounds. Creator unknown.
On a broader point, demonetization is about stocks, its impact on
flows (GDP is a flow) needs careful reasoning.
Fine, but brokerage is a service and that enters GDP calculations.
True, but what are brokerage fees based on? Are they in “black” or
“white”?
Which land/real estate price declines, the “white” (registered
valued) or the “black” (premium)? If the answer to either question
is “black”, what does this have to do with official and legal
measurement of GDP?
On prices, do we have in mind a decline in prices or a decline in
inflation (where rate of increase in prices slows)?
But there’s the rental market too and those prices can affect the
denominator when nominal GDP is deflated to get real GDP.
Perhaps, but depends on ceteris paribus assumptions.
There was some cash in the system. That was for transactions,
speculation (people were holding on to it for no particular obvious
reason) or black. After the transition period is over, that
transaction bit comes back into the system. Ceteris paribus, there
is no change. The speculative cash holding was “idle”, it wasn’t
performing multiplier effects money supply is supposed to have.
That comes into the system, with positive externalities and
efficiencies.
Ceteris paribus, that has an expansionary effect. As for the black
bit, bulk of the tax evading part probably comes back into the
system, while the illegal black part is destroyed. Apart from
affecting RBI’s liabilities, what does destruction of a stock of
black wealth do?
The elements of cash that come into the system are with RBI or
scheduled commercial banks, though either can be “channeled” into
what is “government” proper. That’s going to be spent. Therefore,
one can’t do a ceteris paribus on the contractionary, ignoring the
expansionary. That’s the danger with making strong statements on
interest rates. Interest rates may well decline, but not per se
because of this. They are largely a function of what RBI
does.
The waters are exceedingly muddy on aggregate demand and supply,
which is why I am skeptical about this exponential increase in
economic expertise. Non-aggregate redistribution arguments are more
robust, since there is a transfer from relatively rich to
relatively poor. So are sector specific arguments (real estate,
construction, trade, elections). mid-1970s, I applied to Delhi
college of Economics for a masters programme. An interview was a
part of the admission process and i was requested a query with a
concocted state of affairs. As high Minister, Indira Gandhi goes to
u.S. And forgets to take any cash with her. Nevertheless, she is so
good recognized that she manages to pay for her board and lodging
by means of IOUs issued to the bearer. As soon as again in India,
she used to be speculated to honour these IOUs. But, busy with
hurly burly of governing India, she forgot. Who paid for her keep
in usa?
Economists love the expression ceteris paribus different things
last unchanged. Ceteris paribus, that is classic wide variety
concept of money.
Money give in u.S. Expanded and each US citizen paid for Indira
Gandhi stay via better prices. Any individual sent me a concocted
graph, showing a dramatic expand in economists in India after
November eight. The Indira Gandhi episode in reverse November eight
way reduction in Gross home Produce (GDP), prices and interest
premiums.
Let me muddy waters, ignoring transitority dislocation and
specializing in what occurs thereafter: real property and land
costs will crash. Dangerous for GDP. GDP is value of items and
offerings produced in a 12 months. I purchase a plot of land from
you. Does that enter GDP calculations? Of course not, no price
addition has befell. For GDP calculation functions, thats a switch
fee.
A mock-graph of Economists in India thats doing Social Media
rounds. Creator unknown.
On a broader factor, demonetization is about shares, its affect on
flows (GDP is a float) wishes careful reasoning.
Satisfactory, but brokerage is a carrier and that enters GDP
calculations. Actual, however what are brokerage charges
headquartered on? Are they in black or white?
Which land/actual estate rate declines, the white(registered
valued) or the black (top class)? If the reply to either query is
black, what does this have to do with reliable and legal dimension
of GDP?
On costs, do we have in mind a decline in costs or a decline in
inflation (where price of broaden in costs slows)?
But there the apartment market too and people costs can influence
the denominator when nominal GDP is deflated to get actual
GDP.
Might be, but depends on ceteris paribus assumptions.
There was some cash in the procedure. That was for transactions,
hypothesis (individuals were maintaining on to it for no designated
apparent purpose) or black. After the transition period is over,
that transaction bit comes back into the process. Ceteris paribus,
there is not any alternate. The speculative money maintaining used
to be idle, it wasn't performing multiplier results cash deliver is
supposed to have. That comes into the method, with constructive
externalities and efficiencies.
Ceteris paribus, that has an expansionary outcomes. As for the
black bit, bulk of the tax evading part more often than not comes
again into the method, even as the illegal black section is
destroyed. Apart from affecting RBI's liabilities, what does
destruction of a inventory of black wealth do?
The factors of cash that come into the method are with RBI or
scheduled industrial banks, though either may also be channeled
into what is govt suitable. That going to be spent. Thus, possible
do a ceteris paribus on the contractionary, ignoring the
expansionary. Tha the chance with making powerful statements on
curiosity premiums. Interest premiums may just well decline,
however no longer per se on account that of this. They are
generally a perform of what RBI does.
The waters are really muddy on mixture demand and provide, which is
why i am skeptical about this exponential increase in fiscal
potential. Non-aggregate redistribution arguments are extra robust,
considering there is a switch from rather wealthy to somewhat poor.
So are sector specific arguments (actual estate, construction,
exchange, elections).