In: Statistics and Probability
The number of disk drives (in millions) made at a plant in Brazil during the past 5 years follows:
| Year | Disk Drives |
|---|---|
| 1 | 140 |
| 2 | 160 |
| 3 | 190 |
| 4 | 200 |
| 5 | 210 |
a. Forecast the number of disk drives to be made next year, using trend analysis [ Select ] ["234", "196", "225", "236", "None of the choices provided are correct"]
b. Compute the mean squared error (MSE) when using linear regression. [ Select ] ["30.5", "30", "32", "33.5", "None of the choices provided are correct"]
c. Compute the mean absolute percent error (MAPE). [ Select ] ["2.50", "-2.50", "2.65", "2.12", "None of the choices provided are correct"] %
d. What is the Correlation Coefficient? [ Select ] ["None of the choices provided are correct", "88%", "90%", "95%", "98%"] , and what does it tell you about the relationship between the independent variable an dependent variable? [ Select ] ["cannot determine by calculating r", "A somewhat strong relationship based on r", "That there is a strong relationship", "A weak relationship between time and disk drivesand"]
i am using minitab to solve the problem.
steps for part a,b and c:-
copy the data table in minitab
stat
time series
trend analysis
in
variable select disk drives,in model type tick linear,tick generate
forecasts, in number of forecasts type 1
ok.
your minitab output be:-
Trend Analysis for Disk Drives
Method
| Model type | Linear Trend Model |
| Data | Disk Drives |
| Length | 5 |
| NMissing | 0 |
Fitted Trend Equation
| Yt = 126.00 + 18.00×t |
Accuracy Measures
| MAPE | 2.6455 |
| MAD | 4.8000 |
| MSD | 32.0000 |
Forecasts
| Period | Forecast |
| 6 | 234 |
steps for part d:-
stat
basic
statistics
correlation
in variables select year , disk drives
in
method select Pearson correlation
ok.
you minitab output be:-
Correlation: Year, Disk Drives
Correlations
| Pearson correlation | 0.976 |
| P-value | 0.004 |
answer to the problem:-
| answer | explanation | |
| a. Forecast the number of disk drives to be made next year, using trend analysis | 234 | |
| b. Compute the mean squared error (MSE) when using linear regression. | 32 |
we have MSD=32 we know, MSD=MSE |
| c. Compute the mean absolute percent error (MAPE). | 2.65 | MAPE=2.6455
2.65 |
| d)i). What is the Correlation Coefficient? | 98% | pearson correlation = 0.976
98% |
| ii). what does it tell you about the relationship between the independent variable an dependent variable? | "That there is a strong relationship" | high value of pearson correlation indicates that there is a strong relationship between year and disk drives. |
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