In: Statistics and Probability
The number of disk drives (in millions) made at a plant in Brazil during the past 5 years follows:
Year | Disk Drives |
---|---|
1 | 140 |
2 | 160 |
3 | 190 |
4 | 200 |
5 | 210 |
a. Forecast the number of disk drives to be made next year, using trend analysis [ Select ] ["234", "196", "225", "236", "None of the choices provided are correct"]
b. Compute the mean squared error (MSE) when using linear regression. [ Select ] ["30.5", "30", "32", "33.5", "None of the choices provided are correct"]
c. Compute the mean absolute percent error (MAPE). [ Select ] ["2.50", "-2.50", "2.65", "2.12", "None of the choices provided are correct"] %
d. What is the Correlation Coefficient? [ Select ] ["None of the choices provided are correct", "88%", "90%", "95%", "98%"] , and what does it tell you about the relationship between the independent variable an dependent variable? [ Select ] ["cannot determine by calculating r", "A somewhat strong relationship based on r", "That there is a strong relationship", "A weak relationship between time and disk drivesand"]
i am using minitab to solve the problem.
steps for part a,b and c:-
copy the data table in minitabstat time series trend analysisin variable select disk drives,in model type tick linear,tick generate forecasts, in number of forecasts type 1 ok.
your minitab output be:-
Trend Analysis for Disk Drives
Method
Model type | Linear Trend Model |
Data | Disk Drives |
Length | 5 |
NMissing | 0 |
Fitted Trend Equation
Yt = 126.00 + 18.00×t |
Accuracy Measures
MAPE | 2.6455 |
MAD | 4.8000 |
MSD | 32.0000 |
Forecasts
Period | Forecast |
6 | 234 |
steps for part d:-
statbasic statistics correlation in variables select year , disk drivesin method select Pearson correlationok.
you minitab output be:-
Correlation: Year, Disk Drives
Correlations
Pearson correlation | 0.976 |
P-value | 0.004 |
answer to the problem:-
answer | explanation | |
a. Forecast the number of disk drives to be made next year, using trend analysis | 234 | |
b. Compute the mean squared error (MSE) when using linear regression. | 32 |
we have MSD=32 we know, MSD=MSE |
c. Compute the mean absolute percent error (MAPE). | 2.65 | MAPE=2.6455 2.65 |
d)i). What is the Correlation Coefficient? | 98% | pearson correlation = 0.976 98% |
ii). what does it tell you about the relationship between the independent variable an dependent variable? | "That there is a strong relationship" | high value of pearson correlation indicates that there is a strong relationship between year and disk drives. |
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