Question

In the winter of 2019, in Wuhan, China, a “silent killer” emerged that ravaged many of the smaller villages and towns just outside of Wuhan. This wasn’t unlike many “silent killers” that have attacked China; after all, not even 20 years ago, the country (and the world) was forced to deal with a nemesis known as SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome)which arose in the Yunnan Province of China. This enemy, however, was different.

Unlike SARS, which did not discriminate among who it affected, this new virus appeared to most highly affect the elderly and immunocompromised. Inoculation time varied among the different residents of the Wuhan province, but there appeared to be one common thread among all of the sufferers of this virus: the end result would be a need for mechanical ventilation and acute care and, often, drastic life-saving interventions. The death toll in China rose to the thousands within an extremely short span of time. Epidemiologists in Wuhan were both astounded and stricken with fear at how rapidly the virus replicated and spread among hosts as well.

As with most rapidly spreading viruses, unfortunately, what began as a virus which ravaged one village in China eventually became one of the most prevalent pandemics the world has ever seen. This virus, initially termed the “Wuhan virus,” was eventually identified as a coronavirus with similar viral features to two pandemic viruses: The MERS (Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome) virus and SARS, the very same virus which was rampant in China less than 20 years ago. The virus has since been termed the “SARS-CoV-2” virus (“Coronavirus”).

You are currently an epidemiologist working for the WHO. You, along with a group of 20 colleagues, are formulating a plan to contain this pandemic and potentially devise a vaccine/cure for it.

1. What population(s) of patients are most highly affected by SARS-CoV-2? In the United States in particular, what are some risk factors which could predict worse outcomes?
2. How long will this viral pandemic ravage the world? What are some of the statistical projections which predict how long it will be before the virus is managed?
3. What are some of the ways in which the population can mitigate/decrease the transmission of the virus among the population? Is there evidence which supports “social distancing?”

   9. Give three medically/scientifically accredited sources.

Answer 1

Answers :

1. What population(s) of patients are most highly affected by SARS-CoV-2? In the United States in particular, what are some risk factors which could predict worse outcomes?

As per the last update October 22-2020 there are 41104946 confirmed cases of 235 countries are most highly affected SARS-COV-22.

Risk factors in united states :

Based on currently available information and clinical expertise, older adults and people of any age who have serious underlying medical conditions might be at higher risk for severe illness from COVID-19.

Based on what we know now, those at high-risk for severe illness from COVID-19 are:

• People aged 65 years and older
• People who live in a nursing home or long-term care facility

People of all ages with underlying medical conditions, particularly if not well controlled, including people with:

• chronic lung disease or moderate to severe asthma.

> serious heart conditions

• immunocompromised
  • Many conditions can cause a person to be immunocompromised, including cancer treatment, smoking, bone marrow or organ transplantation, immune deficiencies, poorly controlled HIV or AIDS, and prolonged use of corticosteroids and other immune weakening medications
• severe obesity (body mass index [BMI] ≥40)
• diabetes
• chronic kidney disease undergoing dialysis.
• liver disease.

· Particularly in U.S.A Many risk factors for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection in pregnancy are similar to the social and structural determinants of health that have been reported in the general population. The observed association between severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection and having children raises the possibility of children themselves being vectors of viral spread or behavior patterns of parents being mediators of acquisition

In general, your risk of getting severely ill from COVID-19 increases as you get older. In fact, 8 out of 10 COVID-19-related deaths reported in the United States have been among adults aged 65 years and older.

2.How long will this viral pandemic ravage the world?

Nearly a century after the influenza pandemic of 1918–1919 ravaged communities worldwide, the threat of another pandemic looms large as the scientific and global health communities find ways to prepare for, and battle, future outbreaks.

analyzing the existing data of Hubei epidemic situation, the main factors affecting the spread of COVID-19, such as the number of basic regenerations, the incubation period and the average number of days of cure.

according to the existing data abroad, we also make bold predictions of the epidemic development trends in South Korea, Italy, and Iran, pointing out the possible outbreaks and the corresponding control time, and tracing the earliest transmission dates of countries.

3.some of the ways in which the population can mitigate/decrease the transmission of the virus among the population?

• · Avoid close contact with people who are sick.
• · Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth.
• · Stay home when you are sick.
• · Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw the tissue in the trash.
• · Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces every day. High touch surfaces include counters, tabletops, doorknobs, bathroom fixtures, toilets, phones, keyboards, tablets, and bedside tables.
• · Wash your hands often with soap and water.
• · Keep alcohol-based hand sanitizers
• · Social distancing.

Is there evidence which supports “social distancing?”

• Social distancing can prevent the spread of communicable disease.
• We know that SARS-CoV-2 spreads rapidly through person-to-person contact.

Therefore, limiting human contact will limit the spread of the virus.

The primary goals of NPI when it comes to COVID-19 are to alleviate overcrowding in hospitals and borrow time for scientists to develop vaccine and drug candidates.

Reference : https://asm.org/Articles/2020/April/The-Science-of-Social-Distancing

9.three medically/scientifically accredited sources.

1. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) –corona virus.gov
2. https://www.usa.gov/coronavirus
3. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/global-research-on-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov