In: Statistics and Probability
Dependent variable: sales (Y)
Independent variable: Calls (X1)
1 to 4
The regression analysis is done in excel by following steps
Step 1: Write the data values in excel. The screenshot is shown below,
Step 2: DATA > Data Analysis > Regression > OK. The screenshot is shown below,
Step 3: Select Input Y Range: 'Sales' column, Input X Range: 'Calls' column, Confidence Level = 99%, and tick box for LINE FIt Plot then OK. The screenshot is shown below,
The result is obtained. The screenshot is shown below,
1)
The scatter plot with the trend line (Line Fit Plot)
From the plot, we can see that there is a positive linear trend between the sales and calls
2)
From the regression output summary,
The regression equation is,
3)
From the regression output summary,
The correlation coefficient value is,
Multiple R | 0.6932 |
Interpretation: There is a moderate positive linear correlation between the dependent variable sales and independent variable calls.
4)
From the regression output summary,
The coefficient of determination (R square) value is,
R Square | 0.4805 |
Interpretation: The R-square value tells, how well the regression model fits the data values. The R-square value of the model is 0.4805 which means, the model explains approximately 48.05% of the variance of the data value.
5)
Hypothesis
Null Hypothesis:
Alternate Hypothesis:
The P-value is obtained in regression analysis,
P-value | Significance level | Decision | ||
Calls | 1.3252E-15 | < | 0.05 | The null hypothesis is rejected, |
Conclusion: The P-value for the independent variable is less than 0.05 at a 5% significance level hence we can conclude that independent variable is statistically significant in the model.
6)
Since the model is statistically significant compared to the intercept only model and the independent variable significantly fit the model. The R square value is approximately 0.5 which means there is moderate effect size.
Based on this evidence we can say that the ability of the independent variable to predict the dependent variable is moderate.
7)
From the regression output summary, the 95% confidence level for the slope coefficient is,
Interpretation: Since the confidence interval doesn't include zero, the estimation of the coefficient is statistically significant at a 5% significance level.
8)
let X = 150,
The dependent variable value is,
Now, the confidence interval for Xpredictor = 150 is obtained using the formula,
From the data values,
From the regression output summary,
The standard error of the regression is,
Standard Error | 3.4289 |
The t-critical value is obtained from t-distribution table for significance level = 0.01 and degree of freedom = n - 2 = 98
now,
9)
The 99% prediction interval for the dependent variable is obtained using the following formula,